Atlanta Braves NLDS: defense will matter, but it may not help

Bally broadcasters have been gleefully telling us about the porous Milwaukee defense in recent days.  But will that help the Atlanta Braves?

The Atlanta Braves have been enjoying the fruits of their excellent infield defense this year and as a team, they committed the 4th fewest errors of all teams in major league baseball.

Their opponents this weekend, the Milwaukee Brewers, have been charged with the 11th most errors.

However, it should be said that not all errors are the same.  There are, after all, nine different defensive positions on the field, and they will impact the game in different ways.

Atlanta’s defensive prowess comes as a result of solid infield play:  when they get to baseballs, they can turn them into outs… but that’s about where that stops. When we began this season, there were hopes of perhaps a historically great set of defenders on the field at almost every position.

Alas, that dream fell apart with the departure of Ender Inciarte, the lack of hitting from Cristian Pache, and the injury to Ronald Acuna, Jr.

While the team has patched things together, it’s been clear in the last couple of months that the replacement outfielders — not counting Adam Duvall — don’t exactly measure up to those who originally were roaming the outfield.

All that said, while Duvall is an excellent defender at the corner OF spots, that skill doesn’t translate well to center field, where he’s had to put in a lot more time in recent days.

Digging deeper with the Atlanta Braves numbers vs. Milwaukee

Here’s the defensive breakdowns of each team in some more specific terms:

• Braves outfield:  23rd ranked in errors
• Brewers outfield:  5th best in errors

———–

• Braves infield ranks, by errors committed:
  • 1st base:  BEST (tie)
  • 2nd base:  9th
  • Shortstop:  4th
  • 3rd base:   10th
• Brewers infield ranks, by errors committed:
  • 1st base:  25th2nd base:  5thShortstop:  26th3rd base:  20th

Now, wait … errors are not the best metric to use here… something like defensive efficiency (outs %age by balls put into play) would be better.  The trouble with that stat is that it’s not necessarily tied to a specific person or position on the field on plays where multiple hands are involved.

There’s another aspect to this that’s problematic when trying to rate a defense — or a defensive position.  Many of these metrics (and range is an important one) work against the Braves.

In the absence of a single “best” fielding stat, let’s use fangraphs’ overall defensive scores:

• Third base (this pretty much means ‘Austin Riley‘).  He ranks 10th overall in errors at the position, but his overall defensive score (via FanGraphs) is -4.7, which ranks 28th.
• First base.  Freddie Freeman gets a -12.6 overall rating… 19th overall.

Generally speaking, the Braves do get high marks for shortstop, 2nd base, and catcher (despite the litany of catchers run out there this year).

But for the rest… well, this should sum up things a bit:

• Fangraphs total defensive rating for the entire Braves team:  -6.2 (19th overall)
• Brewers:  56.0  (1st overall)

So yeah… while they have more errors than Atlanta… Milwaukee is really good at getting to balls that most defenders have to let go for hits.

But wait, there’s more

The Brewers outfield is full of excellent defenders.  That will limit Atlanta in two important ways:

• liners to the outfield will be caught more often than we’ve seen
• batters attempting to take an extra base (i.e., stretching a single into a double) may very well find the ball waiting for them when they arrive at second

This isn’t the outfield of the Mets, Phillies, Marlins, or even Nationals… this could be the best trio of defenders in the National League… if not all of MLB.  The Braves need to keep this in mind when challenging those arms.

Overall, the Brewers have been “credited” with giving up 65 unearned runs — runs that are the result of poor defensive play.

Atlanta has given up 46, but it’s hard to gauge whether this discrepancy… less than 1 run per week… is the result of poor defense or a defense that made mistakes after ranging further to chase down baseballs.

The Bottom Line

The upshot is that Milwaukee has a better defense overall — particularly in the outfield.

• That will likely match up well against the Braves’ ability to drive baseballs … when they can do so against the Brewers’ pitching.
• That should also limit Atlanta’s ability to take extra bases and steal runs via superior base-running

However, Atlanta has a better infield defense overall.  When they make plays, they complete them.

• That should work to the Braves’ advantage with ‘soft contact pitchers like Morton, Fried, and Anderson.
• If fly balls can be limited, then that will neutralize the Braves’ deficiency in outfield play.

The games will come down to whichever team can execute its game plan the best, and that includes defensive shifting:

• Atlanta shifts the 4th most of any MLB team… one-third of the time against right-handed hitters; nearly 50% against lefties.
• Milwaukee shifts the 29th most… nearly dead last.  Only 6% of the time against RHH; one-third of the time against lefties.  Perhaps this is related to their infield personnel?

With all of this taken into consideration, it looks like we should expect low-scoring games… one or two hanging breaking pitches could decide things either way.

After all… it’s hard to defend against balls flying over the wall.