Atlanta Braves: Is Max Fried an Extension Candidate this Offseason?

Max Fried was phenomenal down the stretch for the Atlanta Braves as they fought to win a fourth straight NL East title. Is it time to lock him up long-term?

The Atlanta Braves have an obvious extension candidate with Freddie Freeman. However, is it time to consider an extension for Max Fried as well?

Fried is not as pressing of an issue, because he does have three years of control remaining. It could make sense to try to buy out his remaining arbitration years to lock him up even longer.

Max has taken major steps forward over the last two seasons in becoming a legitimate top of the rotation arm. In the shortened 2020 season, he pitched to a 2.25 ERA, 2.81 xERA, 3.10 FIP, and a 4.05 xFIP with a 1.5 fWAR in eleven games.

Most question the legitimacy of the 2020 stats because of the unique season, and Fried’s peripherals did suggest some regression. This led to some wondering what Fried would look like in 2021.

After three starts, there was plenty of reason to worry as he was looking at a 11.45 ERA, 6.34 FIP, and a 4.24 xFIP. He struggled with control and simply did not look like the Max Fried we had come to know and love.

He hit the injured list with a hamstring strain on April 14th. He would return on May 5th and Braves Country was hoping the lefty would get back on track.

Since May 5th, Fried has started 25 games and pitched like an Ace. He has a 2.44 ERA, 3.08 FIP, 3.39 xFIP since returning from the slow start. This gave him a season line of 28 starts with a 3.04 ERA, 3.51 xERA, 3.30 FIP, and a 3.44 xFIP with a 3.8 fWAR.

His 3.04 ERA ranks 10th in all of baseball in ERA, and his ERA+ of 145 (45% better than league average) is good for 7th.

Fried put together a great year for the Braves, and when the division race began to heat up in August, he locked in and pitched arguably was the best baseball of his young career.

Since the month turned to August, Fried has a 1.46 ERA, 2.54 FIP, and a 2.93 xFIP across 11 starts. He also threw two complete game shutouts in under 100 pitches, better known as a “Maddux.”

Fried’s September numbers, 1.54 ERA, 2.87 FIP, and a 2.99 xFIP. In his last three games of the season in what most would describe as playoff type games, he only allowed 1 earned run across 23 innings.

All the numbers and stats can support how great Max Fried has been this season, but anyone that watches the Braves regularly can all agree that he also possesses that “it factor” that the top guys possess.

When Fried steps on the mound, he gives the Braves an opportunity to win.

He is only 27 years old and should only continue to get better. While it feels like Fried has been around for a long time now, he has only thrown 447 regular season innings in the major leagues in his career. There are not a lot of miles on that arm.

There are several examples of pitchers who continue to get better in their 30s. Does Max Fried have another step to take in his development?

Thankfully, the Braves will have him for at least three more seasons, but all indications are that Fried figures into the team’s long-term plans. They have locked up some of the offensive core in Ronald Acuña Jr. and Ozzie Albies for the foreseeable future, could it make sense to lock in a reliable piece of the rotation soon?

Fried signed a $3.5 million deal last off season and should see a raise in each of the next three arbitration years.

Would he be willing to accept an extension for guaranteed money to buy out his arbitration years and keep him off the open market until his mid-30s?

My best guess would be something like a 7 year $110M deal that takes into account the raises he would be projected for in his arbitration years.

Fried looks to be a major factor of the Braves rotation for at least the next three years, but a long-term extension this off season would be welcome sight for all in Braves Country.