Atlanta Braves: Reasons to be Optimistic About Matt Olson

The Atlanta Braves acquired Matt Olson as the heir apparent to Freddie Freeman this offseason. We take a look at why he’s playing better than the overall numbers indicate.

The Atlanta Braves are not off to the start we had hoped for this season. As we learned from last year, things can quickly turn around. The Braves bats are currently 19th in runs scored and some notable names are struggling with the wood.

One name that really sticks out is Matt Olson.

Olson was brought in to fill the Shaq-sized shoes of Freddie Freeman. While he got off to a tremendous start to the season, he’s been scuffling at the plate for a while. Monday night, he was moved down to the fifth spot in the order. He is currently hitting just .244 with four homers and 15 RBI.

Matt is not the only player on the Braves not producing at the plate.

I went to Fangraphs.com and hit the trusty ole “control+F” to search “ATL” after sorting by runs scored for individual players. Unfortunately, it found zero results in the top 30. I changed the dropdown menu to show 50 players at once. One Atlanta Braves player is currently in the top 50 in runs scored, Ozzie Albies in 38th place.

I played the same game in RBI, with even worse results. Zero Atlanta Braves are in the top 50.

You know things are not going well when we have to look to the underlying numbers for optimism, right? It’s always a better scenario to point out players that are dominating the league in the numbers that have actually produced runs and not the ones that should be producing them in theory.

So, let’s get positive. I like to look on the bright side of things. You may recall, last season at the All-Star break I tried to tell you all that the Braves would still win the division and many people thought I was crazy. I don’t think this take is near as polarizing. In fact, I bet most of you probably agree with me about Olson getting things turned around to post a massive season.

Matt Olson and the Month of May

Soon we will look at some of his overall numbers on the season and use them as a reason for optimism. I do want to first acknowledge that Matt’s numbers have slipped tremendously in the month of May. While he has only hit .189 this month, he still has 15 walks and is tied for the team lead in hard-hit balls with 23. Despite his not-so-fun, fun-sized batting average in May, Matt still has a wRC+ of 100.

Matt Olson Continues Elite On-Base Skills

Matt is still getting on base at an elite clip. He is third in all of baseball in total walks with 30. Despite a .244 average, he is rocking a .364 OBP, the 31st-best in the whole wide world of Major League Baseball. This dude walks in 16% of his plate appearances!

Matt Olson’s Power Will Translate into Homers

Matt Olson averages 38 homers every 162 games played over his career. He is coming off of a career-high 39 homers in 2021 with Oakland.

If you go back to that Fangraphs page and sort by average exit velocity, you don’t even have to expand the page to 50 players to find Olson. He is on the first page, clocking in at 28th in the league with an average EV of 91.3 mph.

The power is there and it will reveal itself in the form of dingers. We just need to be like Matt Olson while he is batting and show patience. Be more like Matt.

Matt Olson Doing Other Stuff Well

Olson ranks 27th in the league in hard-hit rate, putting solid wood on the ball 47.4% of the time. While his average sits at .244, his xAVG is a much more respectable .274. Reminder, xAVG is calculated based on the overall quality of contact and probabilities based on said contact.

Check out his Statcast page. There is a lot of red on that chart. The two-time Gold Glove Award winner continues to play great defense, ranking in the 81st-percentile in outs above average.

In summary, he’s getting on base at an elite level, he is hitting the ball as hard as anyone in the sport, and he’s playing great defense. The move down in the lineup should be temporary. Matt Olson is a key ingredient for Atlanta’s success in 2022 and beyond.