Atlanta Braves: Are There Signs of Hope?

The Atlanta Braves have an underwhelming record, but with a long stretch of winnable games, is there hope that they can make up some much needed ground?

On May 20th the Atlanta Braves started a stretch of 29 straight games against teams with losing records. Records don’t tell the whole story because every team has a different schedule. However, it would appear that the time is now for the Braves to step up and take advantage of this segment of their schedule if they want to catch the Mets.

At the time of this writing, the Atlanta Braves are 7 games behind the Mets for the division lead, and 3.5 games behind the Cardinals and the Giants for the final wild card spot.

Are there signs of hope for the Atlanta Braves?

Obviously a weaker schedule helps in terms of hope, but the real question is on if there are signs of hope that the Atlanta Braves are performing better as of late.

The answer is yes. There are some good signs that the Atlanta Braves do have a fighting chance to make up ground during this part of their schedule that is critical to take advantage of.

Bullpen

First things first, the bullpen has been absolutely dominant. It is easy to get caught up in only remembering the bad when it comes to relief pitchers, because often, them giving up a run late leaves a bad taste in fan’s mouths.

The bullpen has not been perfect, which is why some may think they have not been as good as they actually have been. It is easy to remember Kenley Jansen giving up 2 runs, or Will Smith letting teams catch up. But, as a unit, the bullpen has actually been tops in MLB.

In fact, the Braves currently lead MLB in Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement (fWAR) with a 3.28 ERA, and 2.87 FIP in 164.2 innings pitched.

All the effort of the front office to bolster the bullpen is paying off, and Kirby Yates has not even thrown a pitch yet.

Rotation

The rotation has had flashes of dominance with Max Fried being fantastic per usual, and Kyle Wright emerging as a legitimate contender as the staff ace.

However, as a unit the rotation has been right in the middle of the pack being 15th in fWAR with a 4.47 ERA, and a 3.88 FIP. It should be noted that their ERA is a bit inflated due to bad defense with Rosario having an injured eye, and Ronald Acuña Jr not being on the field. They have a much higher ERA than their FIP, which is fielding independent pitching and their expected FIP is also much lower at 4.02.

This is not an excuse. The rotation could absolutely perform better. Charlie Morton was brought back to help solidify his rotation and he has subpar numbers so far with a 5.28 ERA, 4.49 FIP, 1.534 WHIP, and 2.05 strikeout to walk ratio.

Even though Charlie Morton gave up 4 earned runs in his last start, he has been improving. In his first 5 starts he had a 6.85 ERA, 5.4 FIP, and hitters hitting .298/.395/.479 against him.

Since then, he has pitched to a 3.48 ERA, 3.46 FIP, and hitters hitting .253/.330/.380 against him.

The Braves are still struggling to find the answer for the 5th starter, but Morton improving is going to go a long way in the Atlanta Braves’ success.

Hitting

Scoring runs have been a surprising issue for this team. Before the season started, this offense looked like it could challenge scoring the most runs per game since 1900 record, held by the 2003 team.

At the start of the year, there were a few hitters that were really struggling that have since turned a corner.

Dansby Swanson is known as a streaky hitter, but this year he has been at another level. He has gone from one of the worst hitters through the first few months, to one of the best.

In April, Swanson hat a terrible slash line of .216 /.293/.351 while leading the league in strikeouts with only 1 home run.

In May, he has really stepped it up, hitting .317/.368/.544 with 5 home runs. That is an OPS difference of .268.

Ozzie Albies was also a hitter that was struggling. In the first 2 weeks of May he was hitting .280/.275/.320. If you just look at the batting average it does not look terrible, until you look at the OBP and slugging. He actually had a lower OBP than batting average due to having 0 walks.

Since then he has started to look like the Albies of old. He has not had his usual power, but his batting average and OBP has been much better with a 293/.326/.342. That is a difference of .072. He still needs to walk more though, with only 2 for the entire month of May.

Marcell Ozuna has also had a massive bounce back, as predicted. Through May 14th of this season, he was hitting well below his expected numbers at .205/.247/.356, which equates to a .603 OPS.

Since that time, Ozuna has been on fire. He has a slash line of .317/.349/.537. That is a difference of .282 in OPS.

The Atlanta Braves have a lot of work to do if they want to get back into the playoff hunt. However, with this stretch of winnable games, and these above mentioned bright beacons there are signs of hope that this could happen.