Atlanta Braves: Potential Bullpen Trade Target

The 2022 trade deadline is approaching, and it appears that the Atlanta Braves will be looking to add to their already stacked roster

Fortunately for the Atlanta Braves, they do not have a glaring hole on the 26-man roster. After a strong month of June, the Braves are clearly contenders for a playoff spot and are looking to repeat as World Series champions.

Since the Atlanta Braves have such a strong roster, it is not as simple as pointing out the single weak link position and fixing it. For example, last year it was obvious they needed outfield and bullpen help. The year prior it was obvious they could use some rotation help.

What help should the Atlanta Braves pursue?

Although there are areas that could be upgraded, it is not as cut and dry. They could use help in a few areas. They could use help by adding a left-handed bat, as they do struggle against righty pitchers at times. The Braves could also use surety in the rotation with Ian Anderson being streaky, and the unknown of Mike Soroka. They could also use depth in the bullpen.

Focusing on the bullpen, it should be noted that the Atlanta Braves have excelled as a whole. It can be easy to overlook this because it is easy to remember bullpen failures since they are in high leverage situations. However, the Braves lead all of MLB with a 4.7 WAR. The next closest team are the Orioles with 4.0.

Just to further show the dominance, rounding out the top 5, the Tigers have a 3.2 WAR, showing just how elite the Atlanta Braves bullpen has been.

Why would the Atlanta Braves pursue bullpen help if they have been so good?

The Braves have been excellent, and Kirby Yates, who should be back the second half of the season, has not even pitched for them yet. So, why would they pursue bullpen help?

Good teams have depth, which the Braves could use, especially in the bullpen. Tyler Matzek has already been injured, we have seen Collin McHugh miss time (albeit, COVID related), and Kenley Jansen just hit the 15 day injured list just to name a few.

Extra bullpen arms are a luxury that the Braves can afford and exploring this route could be a good idea.

Who is a good bullpen target for the Atlanta Braves?

While there are many bullpen arms that should be available, one really sticks out among the rest; Jorge López.

The Orioles have gone on an impressive run and had a winning record in June, but they still are long shots to make the playoffs. This arguably shows the Orioles’ rebuild is making progress and they could compete in the near future.

By making a move now, they could potentially add some pieces that will help them when they are ready to compete and could expedite the process.

It just so happens that Jorge López is having the season of his life and Baltimore could capitalize on his value being at an all time high.

Before this season, López mostly functioned as a starter, and simply put, he was not meant for that role. From 2015 to 2021 he made 102 appearances, with 58 of them as a starter, where his ERA during that time was a well below average 6.04 (76 ERA+), with a 5.15 FIP, a 1.546 WHIP, and a 2.15 strikeout/walk ratio.

Based on those numbers, Baltimore would be hard pressed to float López as a trade target that other teams would be lining up to acquire.

However, this year has been a completely different story. López is being utilized in what seems to be a role he flourishes in as a closer. So far this year his stats are eye popping with a minuscule 0.75 ERA (535 ERA+), 2.38 FIP, 0.806 WHIP, and a 2.77 strikeout/walk ratio.

Of course, looking at his past would understand make a future club leery of acquiring him. However, whenever you trade for a player, you are trading for what they will do in the future, not for what they have done in the past, and his future looks good.

Because the future is what matters, it is important to look at expectancy stats to see if how a player is pitching or hitting can hold up based on variables like hard contact, where the ball is being hit, etc.

According to Statcast, López’s numbers are legitimate. His BABIP against him is .182, which contributes to his expected ERA (xERA) being slightly higher at 2.32. However, he fairs well in almost everything that matters:

·      xERA – Top 5% in the league

·      HardHit% – Top 1%

·      Expected weighted on base average (xwOBA) against – Top 5%

·      Expected batting average (xBA) against – Top 5%

·      Expected slugging% (xSLG) against – Top 2%

·      Barrel % – Top 4%

·      Strikeout % – Top 28%

Really the only area that he could improve on is that he walks too many batters, being in the bottom 31% of the league.

He has an interesting profile as it almost looks like he is a hybrid of a power pitcher and a contact pitcher. Regardless of what he is classified as, it is working. Based on these expectancy stats, if he continues to pitch like he is now, he is going to continue to excel in his role.

The biggest question will be if Baltimore puts him on the trading block. If they do, he has a very appealing contract situation. His potential future team would only owe the pro-rated amount of a 1.5-million-dollar salary this year, and he would be under team control through 2024.

Competing teams typically target bullpen arms, so there is also a real chance that there could be a bidding war for López’s services.

Atlanta’s minor league depth is depleted being ranked 27th in the pre-season by MLB.com, and Baltimore is not hurting for prospects being ranked 1st. So, it could be assumed that some extensive negotiations would need to be done to work out a deal. But, based on recent history, Alex Anthopoulos has the ability to get it done.