Could the Atlanta Braves Target this Oakland Athletics Pitcher?
With the trade deadline approaching, Alex Anthopolous and the Atlanta Braves will look to improve the roster in order to defend their title.
As the Atlanta Braves approach the trade deadline, there is not glaring need currently but there are certainly areas where they could improve the roster.
The Oakland Athletics started a rebuild this winter and figure to be a team to watch for at the deadline. Most will look at Frankie Montas as the obvious target. Even someone like Paul Blackburn could be an intriguing name for teams. However, there is one under the radar reliever that could garner some interest for contenders.
On the surface, Trivino has been really bad this year with a 6.59 ERA, 1.94 WHIP, and .331 average against. Most would see that and believe he is more of a DFA candidate rather than someone a contender would trade for.
Yet, his peripherals tell a completely different story. Trivino has a 3.81 xERA, 3.22 FIP, 2.99 xFIP, and 3.01 SIERA.
Trivino’s 28.9% strikeout rate is up compared to his career 24.5%, as is his 49.4% ground ball rate compared to a career 46.5%. He walks a decent bit of guys with a 9.6% walk rate but that is actually down from 11.0% in 2021 and from his 10.8% career rate.
The 88.1 average exit velo is up from 87.4 in 2021 but even then, that still ranks in the 64th percentile, much better than half the league. The barrel rate is up from 7.8% to 8.5% and hard-hit rate up from 33.8% to 41.5% but that is not a major rise.
The biggest issue for Trivino is he leads all relievers (min 10 innings pitched) with a .468 BABIP. A .468 BABIP!
Generally, a .300 BABIP is considered close to a yearly league average. This year for relievers, the league average BABIP sits around .275. That is a stark difference and one most would think could normalize as the year progresses.
Interestingly enough, his primary pitch, his sinker, has seen a decrease in exit velocity from 88.3 in 2021 to 85.3 in 2022 and launch angle from 4 degrees to -5 degrees. However, the batting average against his sinker this year is .486 (.318 xBA).
The rest of his pitches:
- 4-seam: .324 BA, .284 xBA, .618 SLG, .554 xSLG
- Slider: .091 BA, .062 xBA, .136 SLG, .073 xSLG
- Cutter: .273 BA, .206 xBA, .273 SLG, .259 xSLG
- Changeup: .286 BA, .296 xBA, .500 SLG, .514 xSLG
There is a mixed bag of results but once one digs through, there is some promising trends to be seen with Lou Trivino. Moving him to a contender, especially one with a good defense could be what the reliever needs to see the surface stats take a positive turn.
He also will have two years of control which could appeal to some teams. The Athletics are willing to trade anything not nailed down. Could the Braves revisit the connection with Oakland a few months after the Matt Olson trade?
Another Year Another Reliever
This hypothetical trade could be compared to last year’s acquisition for Richard Rodríguez. Now, that was obviously the worst trade made during last year’s trade season by the Braves, but it was a low risk trade that has not hurt the team too much.
They gave away former top prospect Bryse Wilson who had fallen out of favor in the Braves organization and a lottery ticket reliever prospect in Ricky DeVito.
Something along those lines could make sense for the Braves making a potential move for Trivino.
The Braves probably would not need to move any major prospects in any deal for Trivino. Instead, the Athletics could be intrigued by a high upside lottery ticket or two in the Braves system. Someone that does a certain skillset that they can look to get out of them.
A pitcher like Dylan Dodd who is having a solid year could be intriguing to the Athletics. A pitcher with solid control, decent strikeout stuff, and the potential to be a solid major league one day with the right development.
There is also the potential for a guy like Drew Lugbauer or Makhi Backstrom to be appealing. Lugbauer is having a solid season in AA with plenty of power and a good eye but there may not be room for him in Atlanta. Backstrom is a true lottery ticket with hit tool concerns but light tower power potential.
There are several others that could serve as intriguing names for the A’s. They should grab big name prospects in any trade for Montas. Meaning they can afford to move a reliever in return for some higher risk high reward prospects.
Trivino is a fairly under the radar type move that would not cost a fortune. With the Braves having one of the worst (arguably the worst) farm system, they will need to be shopping in the clearance section.
Trivino would be another low risk high reward trade target. If it goes well, the Braves strengthen an already strong bullpen. If not, they could cut bait easily.
Trivino feels like someone Alex Anthopolous and company could target.