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Could the Atlanta Braves target Tyler Mahle from the Reds?

By Trent Dickeson

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - APRIL 07: Tyler Mahle #30 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches in the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on April 07, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
ATLANTA, GEORGIA - APRIL 07: Tyler Mahle #30 of the Cincinnati Reds pitches in the first inning against the Atlanta Braves at Truist Park on April 07, 2022 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images) /
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Could the Atlanta Braves make a run at Cincinnati Reds pitcher Tyler Mahle at the trade deadline?

The trade deadline is right around the corner and the Atlanta Braves figure to be active as they contend for another World Series. Could Tyler Mahle be a key add in what is hopefully another October run?

Mahle is one of the bigger names at this trade deadline, coming in at number 6 on MLB Trade Rumors Top 50 Trade Candidates. While he is a bigger name, he is expected to be a (slight) step below fellow teammate Luis Castillo and Oakland A’s Frankie Montas in terms of cost.

Could the Braves swoop in and grab Mahle from the Reds?

Season Review

Mahle broke out during the 2020 shortened season with a 3.59 ERA, 3.37 xERA, 3.88 FIP, 4.59 xFIP, 4.07 SIERA, and 1.15 WHIP. Mahle’s ERA+ was 137. He had a great strikeout rate of 29.9%. He looked like a reliable middle-of-the-rotation arm, albeit in 47.2 innings pitched.

He would back up that performance by having his best year to date in 2021. In 33 games, Mahle would pitch 98.1 innings, with a 3.75 ERA, 3.73 xERA, 3.80 FIP, 3.74 xFIP, 3.82 SIERA, and 1.23 WHIP. This was good enough for a 125 ERA+ while also carrying a 27.7% strikeout rate and 8.4% walk rate. In total, he was worth 5.1 bWAR and 3.8 fWAR.

Mahle has gotten off to a slower start this year, as evident by a 4.48 ERA. However, the peripherals suggest he has been a tad unlucky with a 3.31 xERA, 3.79 FIP, 4.12 xFIP, and 3.93 SIERA. Even with the struggles, his ERA+ is 102, meaning he has still been an above-average pitcher.

Some of his struggles could be contributed to an injury and possibly the lockout-shortened spring training. If we break his season down by month:

  • Mar/April: 22.1 IP, 6.45 ERA, 2.46 FIP, 4.25 xFIP
  • May: 31.1 IP, 4.88 ERA, 4.56 FIP, 4.39 xFIP
  • June: 33.2 IP, 2.94 ERA, 2.89 FIP, 3.33 xFIP
  • July: 11.0 IP, 4.09 ERA, 7.04 FIP, 5.52 xFIP

Ignoring the small sample that is July, Mahle has gotten better as the season went along. He made 1 start in July (against the Braves) where he allowed several baserunners but was immediately placed on the IL after the game. He just returned this weekend for a start against the Cardinals.

If we break down Mahle’s starts from May 8th to June 26th, we see a pitcher who had a 3.50 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 3.61 xFIP, 3.39 SIERA, 28.2% strikeout rate, and 7.1% walk rate. Before his injury, he was finding his groove and looked like a solid top-of-the-rotation pitcher.

He Pitches Better Away from GABP

A statistic that will not shock many baseball fans is that Mahle pitches much better away from his home ballpark. Great American Ball Park is famously known as a hitter’s park and that is shown in Mahle’s performances.

This year:

  • Home: 58.1 IP, 4.94 ERA, 4.45 FIP, 4.35 xFIP
  • Away: 40.0 IP, 3.83 ERA, 2.68 FIP, 3.78 xFIP

2021:

  • Home: 78.1 IP, 5.63 ERA, 5.16 FIP, 3.63 xFIP
  • Away: 101.2 IP, 2.30 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 3.82 xFIP

Getting him away from the Great American Small Park has been beneficial for him over the last two seasons. Even for his entire career, he consistently pitches better away from home:

  • Home: 279.1 IP, 5.06 ERA, 5.11 FIP, 4.11 xFIP
  • Away: 308.1 IP, 3.74 ERA, 3.53 FIP, 4.16 xFIP

He is good on the road and has gotten better as his career has gone on. This is why he is seen as a big trade target for teams. There is the belief he could take a big step forward in the right situation.

The Reds Defense Does Him No Favors

Another nonshocker is that the rebuilding Cincinnati Reds are not doing Mahle any favors with their defense.

Baseball savant has them ranked 27th with -14 runs prevented and -18 OAA. The Reds’ defense also ranks 28th in baseball with -31 DRS.

Whichever defensive metric one prefers shows that the Reds’ defense is not helping any of their pitchers out this season. Most pitchers will struggle when their defense is forcing them to arguably get an extra out or two throughout the game.

Moving Mahle to a team with a better defense, like the Braves, could be a benefit to the Braves and Mahle.

Can the Braves Afford Him?

As mentioned earlier, he is one of the bigger names on the trade market. A few teams will check in on Mahle.

Mahle also comes with another year of control, meaning he is not a rental. That will impact his potential price.

The Braves have one of the weakest farm systems in baseball, meaning they may not want to participate in any bidding wars. However, if they do decide to spend big on pitching Mahle could make sense for the team. A rotation of Max Fried, Kyle Wright, Tyler Mahle, Charlie Morton, and Spencer Strider would be a formidable rotation. It could also allow them to push Strider to the pen if the team wanted to save some innings for the young flamethrower.

The Braves could also attempt to grab Mahle along with another popular trade target, Brandon Drury.

The Braves figure to be active once again at the deadline. Hopefully, this year’s is just as good as last years and leads to similar results.

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