Game Preview: Atlanta Braves vs. Washington Nationals (Game 2)

Wednesday, July 28 – 7:05 (SportSouth)
Atlanta Braves (57-42) vs. Washington Nationals (43-57)

Tim Hudson
(2.47 ERA, 4.22 xFIP, 3.20 BB/9, 4.47 K/9, 6.8 SwStr%, 66 GB%)
(Career vs. WAS: 15 GS, 9-1, 1.51 ERA, 19 BB, 76 K)
vs.
Livan Hernandez
(3.12 ERA, 4.59 xFIP, 2.58 BB/9, 4.75 K/9, 5.2 SwStr%)
(Career vs. ATL: 29 G, 28 GS, 6-15, 5.16 ERA, 77 BB, 103 K)

Braves vs. Hernandez:
Chipper Jones: 24-68, 11 2B, 3B, HR, 15 RBI, 12 BB, 5 K
Alex Gonzalez: 4-41, 2B, 2 RBI, 2 BB, 9 K
Eric Hinske: 6-23, 2B, HR, 2 RBI, 4 BB, 4 K
Brian McCann: 5-15, 2B, HR, 4 RBI, 2 BB
Troy Glaus: 3-11, 2 2B, RBI, 2 BB, 3 K
Melky Cabrera: 2-11, RBI, K
Martin Prado: 4-10, 2B
Jason Heyward: 1-1, HR, RBI, 2 BB

Nationals vs. Hudson:
Adam Kennedy: 15-57, 2 2B, HR, 3 RBI, 3 BB, 9 K
Cristian Guzman: 11-57, 2 2B, RBI, BB, 8 K
Ivan Rodriguez: 13-29, 3B, 2 HR, 8 RBI, 2 BB, 2 K
Ryan Zimmerman: 4-28, 2B, BB, 6 K
Adam Dunn: 9-22, 2B, 2 HR, 4 RBI, BB, 3 K
Josh Willingham: 1-20, 2B, 3 BB, 7 K
Willie Harris: 2-9, 2B, RBI, 2 BB, 2 K
Ian Desmond: 2-9, 3 K
Nyjer Morgan: 0-6
Roger Bernadina: 2-5, 2B, 2 K

What to Look For:
The Braves must get back on track tonight and they have the one they can depend on to do so. Hudson has been the skid-stopper when needed this season and I would expect no different tonight as he faces a team he has dominated over his career. He holds a 9-1 record against the Nationals with a 1.51 ERA in 15 starts. Hudson faced Stephen Strasburg in his last start against the Nationals and outpitched him, pitching seven shutout innings. He has allowed two runs in 14 innings against them this season. The Braves also must get to Hernandez and actually score runs tonight.

My Take on the Opposition:
Hernandez has played over his head all season, recording a 4.59 xFIP along with that 3.12 ERA that used to live in the two’s. He’s walking only 2.58 BB/9 but striking out 4.75 K/9, both not far from his career averages. The difference is the .278 BABIP and 76.6 LOB%, meaning he has been lucky on balls in play and stranding runners. Hernandez is in the mold of Jamie Moyer in that he either shuts the Braves down or the Braves pummel him. In his one start against them this season, he allowed one earned run on five hits in 5.1 innings even though he walked five and struck out one.