Why Not… David Price?

David Price.  I’ll give credit to Bobby over at our TomahawkTake Facebook site for putting this thought (back) into my head.  I have been a vocal advocate of a Price-to-the-Braves deal for some time now.  Still am. 

As I view the current landscape, I see two windows of opportunity to obtain David Price:

• After the 2015 season concludes and he becomes a free agent
• Now

If you were to Google “David Price Braves”, you would see a number of speculative articles on the subject:  some lay out the reasons, some the benefits, some dislike the idea.

Some hint at the notion that Price himself could be interested.

David Price is from Murfreesboro, Tennessee – just a bit southeast of Nashville where he attended Vanderbilt University.  Braves Country.  Heck, it’s all Country in that part of the world.  It would be a natural fit.

This isn’t Part of the Plan, Right?

I have noted this off-season that the John Hart/John Coppollela Plan seems to be wrapped around moving quality Major League trade assets out and getting high-end minor league prospects in return.  That has been the case for all transactions, save one (Aaron Northcraft went to San Diego in the Justin Upton deal).

While many have advocated trading prospects to obtain some needed piece, that does not seem to be the modus operandi this Winter for the Head Johns.  The idea has been to rebuild the farm and sign free agents, not trade those assets for others.

So what I’m about to suggest is an exception.

Kinda.

But first, there’s a few things to get out of the way.

Precursor Questions

Q:  Why would the Tigers be moving Price in the first place?
A:  They aren’t… yet.  That’s changing.  Price is on the last year of his deal, and has apparently shown no inclination to re-up with Detroit.  Moreover, speculation is rising that he’s being looked upon as a trade chip, according to this view.

Q:  How does Detroit benefit from moving him?
A:  Price is set to make an estimated $18.9m in arbitration this year.  That represents money that could be freed up for them to pursue Max Scherzer or James Shields.  No big deal to that club to spend the money on whoever will take it.

Q:  But… that’s a big payout for the Braves.
A:  Right.  And it was John Hart who said of Jon Lester, “right guy, wrong time.”  That would seem to also apply to David Price, no doubt.  But that was before sending Justin Upton to San Diego. And there’s another idea that I have in mind here.

Q:  Why not just wait until 2015?
A:  Reason 1:  now you are competing against 29 other clubs.  Think “bidding war”.  So it could be now or never.  Also, after 2015, he’s going to cost you a draft pick to get.  Yes, the cost today involves players already in the fold, which is a higher ‘cost’, but doing this after 2015 isn’t free, either.

How Does This Happen?

Here’s the idea.  Feel free to shoot it down.

Detroit sends David Price to Atlanta in exchange for Mike Minor and a prospect in the 15th-20th ranked range, depending on what Detroit wants.  Names like Kyle Kubitza, Juan Jaime, Wes Parsons – your list may vary.

That’s basically one major league pitcher with 3 years of control for one year of David Price.  Atlanta would want a wink from Price and his agent that they would work with the Braves for an extension as soon as possible.  That’s the only thing that justifies sending Minor in the deal.

Next: PIERZYNSKI: The Right Move... or not?

Understandably, you’ll have more questions now.

Mike Minor (36). Mandatory Credit: Frank Victores-USA TODAY Sports

Is this affordable by the Braves?  I have the current opening day payroll estimate at around $94 million with a max budget of $120 million.  When you subtract the estimated $5.1 million for Minor… Yes. Easily so, in fact.

Does this even represent an upgrade?  Minor has shown us occasional periods of brilliance.  Several, in fact.  But when I check the aggregate numbers, his ERA+ figures since he became a regular in the rotation (2011-present) are 93, 97, 117, and 76 (100 being league average).  Price’s ERA+ was under 108 exactly once:  his first full season in the majors (2009).

But wouldn’t this still leave us short one pitcher?  Yes.  But even adding Price’s price, there’s still budget space available for another starter.  Up to roughly $11 million, in fact.

Why do this is Atlanta isn’t going to be competitive in 2015?  Because adding an ace makes the entire staff better, and superior pitching – even with a relatively poor offense – will keep you “in” virtually every game.  I think I could argue that removing Minor and adding Price takes out the weakest staff member and adds a new #1 to go with Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, and Shelby Miller.  That alone makes Atlanta competitive.

What about the future?  A multi-year deal for David Price would probably look a lot like the one Jon Lester got.  Roughly $22-24 million per year.  If the Braves can get him at $23m for 5-to-6 years after 2015 (he’s still not yet 30 years old), that would be about right.  2017 represents the biggest future money crunch, with $84 million currently committed – but it’s also the first year that the SunTrust money kicks in with the new stadium sponsorship.  That should be doable.

Plus, by 2016-17, other pitchers now in the system will start knocking on the rotation door – along with every other member of the rotation already in place.  Having Price around as the veteran leader of the staff would be a huge plus – eventually giving Atlanta a Formidable Five that would look impressive against virtually any other rotation in the majors.

Downsides/Complications

1.  Price himself might not actually appreciate being traded for Minor – a fellow Vanderbilt teammate, and native of Chapel Hill, Tennessee.  I might start the conversation by offering David Hale… but I expect that wouldn’t be enough for the Tigers.

2.  He’s got to agree to an extension deal to make it “worth” such a trade… and Detroit might not care to allow Atlanta a chance to get one in place first (in which case, I would not offer Minor).  In the worst case scenario, Atlanta would gain a compensation draft pick in 2016 if they were to have Price for 2015 and lose him after the year.

3.  Detroit has to want Minor… but certainly a controllable major league pitcher is a better idea than their own worst-case scenario – a comp pick in 2016.

I could actually think of bigger deals with Detroit – trades involving third base, left field, and catching options, but this keeps it simple.

So sure: a lot would have to happen to get this done.  But I still want David Price behind a tomahawk jersey.  I’m not surrendering 2015 just yet.