Timeline: When to Expect the New Prospects

The Braves have picked up a pile of prospect talent this off-season.  But when will that translate into Major League contributions?  Let’s step into the Way-Forward machine and see if we can take a guess or two.

ARODYS VIZCAINO

• RH RELIEF PITCHER, 24 years old, 6’0″/190.  Majors experience in 2011 (17 innings + playoffs) and 2014 (5 innings).
• ISSUES:  It will depend on his ability to control his pitches.  In 2014 rehab stints, that was an issue.  Prior to his elbow injury (2010-2011), Vizzy’s control was fairly solid at most levels.  Expecting that we’ll see quite a bit of him in the Spring, and then the coaches will make a call.
• ETA:  As early as Opening Day; probably sometime during the season otherwise.

TYRELL JENKINS

• RH STARTING PITCHER, 22-1/2 years old, 6’4″/204.  ML experience:  none.
• ISSUES:  Missed parts of 2013-14 recovering from TJ surgery.  High WHIP numbers regardless, though pitched well in 2014.  Not a ton of strikeouts.  Threw 98 innings in 2014 between High-A and the Arizona Fall League – a pro career high.  Will need to show that he can stretch out to more innings, which could take a couple of years.
• ETA:  Late 2016, with a chance to compete for the main rotation as early as 2017.

JACE PETERSON

• LH BAT/RH THROW 2B/3B, 24-1/2 years old, 6’0″/210.  ML experience:  27 games/58 PA with Padres in 2014.
• ISSUES:  Hit over .300 in 2 minor league stops in 2014.  Singles/doubles hitter – no power to speak of.  Very high OBP – walks as much as he K’s.  Now needs to take that success in the minors up a level.  Former first round pick.  Actually seems to be another version of Tommy La Stella… with perhaps slightly better defense.
• ETA:  Will get a fair look in Spring along with Alberto Castellano.  If he doesn’t win the job, he’ll likely go to AAA and wait for an opening, whether via trading Chris Johnson or via injury.  Likely a starter in 2016 either way.

DUSTIN PETERSON

• No relation to Jace; younger brother of D.J. Peterson, a 2013 first round pick of Seattle.
• RH BAT/RH THROW 3B.  20 years old, 6-2/185 (brother is shorter, 2-3/4 years older).  ML experience:  none.
• ISSUES:  drafted out of high school (61st ranked by Baseball America).  The report on his hitting tool is very good; it’s his defense that will need work, but there is still time for that.  He may be limited to third base positionally – possibly second.  If his bat matures, then defensive issues can be tolerated.  Scouting grades are not terribly optimistic – would probably have to hit those projected ceilings to make the majors.  Completed a full season of Low-A ball in 2014.
• ETA:  Barring a breakout, I would expect a station-to-station approach, therefore High-A in 2015, AA in 2016, AAA in 2017 putting him within reach of the majors between late 2017 and late 2018.

 MALLEX SMITH

• LH BAT/RH THROW OF/CF.  21-1/2 years old, 5’9″/155 pound speed burner.  ML experience:  none.
• ISSUES:  None, really.  Hoping for some further defensive improvements, though reports suggest that this shouldn’t be a concern.  Singles hitter, but shows excellent on-base skills, whether via hit, bunt, or walk.  Completed split season of Low-A/High-A ball in 2014.  AA likely in 2015 by mid-year.  Plate skills appears to be consistent as he has progressed.
• ETA:  Given what’s ahead of him, 2017 is most likely, though a cup of coffee is possible later in 2016.

Next: Mallex Smith: the Next Billy Hamilton?

 DANNY (DAN, DANIEL) WINKLER

• RH STARTING PITCHER.  Almost 25 years old, 6’1″/190.  ML experience:  none.
• ISSUES:  TJ surgery in August 2014 after nearly reaching the point of a call-up from AA with the Rockies while in the midst of a break-out campaign.  One of those draft surprises that occasionally comes up, Winkler was picked in Round 20 from UCF and led the minors in K’s in 2013 – as in all of the minors.  If the Braves can figure out how to keep him stashed while still fulfilling their Rule 5 obligations, he could be a steal.
• ETA:  Figure on no/limited pitching in 2015 as he rehabs the surgery.  That sets him up for a long look come Spring of 2016 with a chance to stick – at least as a reliever.  If he is able to repeat his 2014 success, then a rotation bid isn’t out of the question by 2017.

 MAX FRIED

• LH STARTING PITCHER.  Almost 21 years old, 6’4″/170.  ML experience:  none.
• ISSUES:  TJ surgery in August 2014 (that’s not a cut-n-paste from Winkler’s bio above).  “One of the best left-handed pitching prospects in the game“, Fried was originally tabbed as making the majors by late-2015/early 2016.  Clearly, that’s been set back a bit.  Scouting reports suggest that he should attack a bit more and nibble a bit less.  This would reduce his walk rate, which is higher than we’d like to see, though not for reasons of “control issues.”
• ETA:  Given the surgery, I would move that prior projection back by 18 months or so.  That means early 2017.

Next: OFF-SEASON GRADES in the NL East

 ZOILO ALMONTE

• SWITCH HITTER / RH THROW OF.  25-1/2 years old, 6’0″/205.  ML experience:  47 games, 149 PA with Yankees (2013-14).
• ISSUES:  Minor league free agent signing.  Appears to play better as an everyday player – hasn’t had that chance at the ML level yet.  At most levels in the minors, seemed to take some time to get acclimated to the level, then hit better.  Definitely has some power – walks enough, doesn’t strike out at horrible rates.  Looks to have some trade-offs in his stats between hitting for average and hitting for power.  Likely will be given chance to win 4th OF spot this Spring.
• ETA:  Now.  If Nick Markakis is delayed in his surgery rehab, he could break camp as the starting RF.  If Evan Gattis is traded, then he could start in LF… or Joey Terdoslavich could jump up and win that slot.  Then again, he might not be around that long, either.

DIAN TOSCANO

• LH Bat / LH THROW OF (LF).  25? years old, 5’11″/200.  ML experience: none.
• ISSUES:  Visa issues at the moment, but that will be overcome at some point.  The bigger issue will be in getting accustomed to the United States in general, and in playing baseball again specifically.  Toscano hasn’t seen much action in the past couple of years, so I would expect to see him start in the low-mid minors and work his way up as he can.  Toscano is another one of these bat-control OBP guys that the Braves are suddenly flocking to with a record of extremely low strikeouts and more walks.
• ETA:  Depends on how things go, but I would guess sometime between the middle-or-end of 2015 – start of 2016 at worst.  May also depend on whether there’s a spot for him available on the field.  Any one of Almonte, Gattis, or Terdoslavich could snag that position… or Toscano could make a believer out of everybody and then the Braves would clear the decks for him.

Michael Kohn. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

 MICHAEL KOHN

• RH RELIEF PITCHER.  28-1/2 years old, 6’2″/200.  ML experience:  110 innings scattered from 2011-14.
• ISSUES:  Minor league contract, so he is most likely signed to provide organizational depth.  His stats show good strikeout numbers, but also high walk totals.  Kohn received a Spring invite with his contract.
• ETA:  Now, though he will have to earn it.  Could easily slip in to the bullpen at any point of need, though he will not be the first choice… or even 2nd or 3rd… since he is not on the 40-man roster.

Wrap It

If you got through all of that, you may have noticed that I’m projecting a log-jam of pitching by 2017:  all three of the starting pitchers listed above (Jenkins/Winkler/Fried), in fact.  That might lead to an interesting problem, but let’s not worry about that until they all do their rehab work and show that they’re ready for the majors.

In the meantime, I’m still liking the chances for most of the rest – especially Smith.  I will be excited to see what the rest can do, though, for several could be a key part of the Braves’ future as they move toward Suntrust Park.