Atlanta Braves Lineup: Who Hits in the 2 Hole? Dansby or DatDude?

We’ve seen the projected, possible lineup constructions. Dansby Swanson is penciled in for the 2 spot, but there are those who think new addition Brandon Phillips should be given the task.

The Scenario

I engaged in some really good discussion the other day over a simple question about the Atlanta Braves lineup.

Who hits in the second spot of the lineup, Brandon Phillips or Dansby Swanson?

A simple question, in general, yes. But after looking into it and doing a little digging, I’m going with Swanson.

I understand his sample size from last year is extremely minuscule. However, Phillips’ career sample hitting below the 5 spot is more reason to let Swanson have the 2 spot.

For me, it boils down to getting on base more frequently. Dansby, in his small sample size, had an OBP 40 points higher than Phillips and an OPS 70 points higher, last year.

At the top of the order, you want guys who get on base. Dansby will get on at a higher clip than Phillips, and having that kind of on base ability is only going to help Freddie Freeman even more.

The Rookie Argument

The argument of a rookie being saddled with any kind of pressure, to me, while fair, isn’t a big deal. I highly doubt Swanson feels the pressure of hitting in the two spot.

That early season pressure would be reason to worry, IF they hadn’t brought him up when they did last year. Bringing him up when they did, they gave him the most time to adjust, without risking his rookie status.

Those 38 games last year will take the edge of this year, early on. But if I remember right, he had a slow start in Mississippi last year, so he may be one of those that takes a minute to get going, and if he does, I still don’t think it’s any cause for concern.

I have confidence in the kid to handle hitting in the 2 spot. Looking at his splits, while very, very small, he had one game at 2nd in the lineup, and it was a rather good one, the majority came at 8th, but if he stays consistent, he’ll flourish at the top of the order.

Had this been a year where Atlanta was pushing for a NL East, World Series title, I’d be more willing to accept Phillips in the 2 spot.

But in a year where 75-80 wins is expected, I don’t see the cause for concern over pressure. The only pressure he’s going to have is that which is placed on him by the fans.

Your #Braves double play duo of Dansby Swanson and Brandon Phillips is busy this AM. "Web gems coming to a theater near you." - @DatDudeBP pic.twitter.com/OanNJDrNnB
— Grant McAuley (@grantmcauley) February 20, 2017

The Veteran Argument

Veteran, rookie … whatever. There’s no doubt Phillips will help the growth and development of Swanson. That said, just because Phillips is a veteran, doesn’t necessarily make him the default, better option.

The Braves planned the number of plate appearances for Dansby last year with his call up. It was timed perfectly. Had he gotten one or two more, he would not be rookie eligible this year.

Phillips, though, over the last 4 years or so, has seen the majority of his plate appearances toward the bottom half of the order. Around 4th, 5th, 6th and even 8th.

His production has declined in the higher spots, but oddly enough, he has done better in the lower half. This is reason enough to place him in the 6th spot.

The Breakdown

Phillips’ splits at each spot in the order are interesting.

In 2016, Phillips hit in the 3rd, 4th, 5th, and 6th spots of the order. He had 154 PAs at 3rd, 178 PAs at 4th, 171 at 5th, and 81 at 6th.

His OBP and OPS slashes at each spot in 2016: .314/.628 (3rd), .292/.741 (4th), .347/.841 (5th), and .333/.705 (6th).

In 2015 he hit in every spot in the lineup, including 9th. PA’s where he had more than 30 were at 1, 4, 5, and 6. His OBP and OPS slashes: .304/.672 (1st), .360/.804 (4th), .444/838 (5th), and .361/.861 (6th).

In the 2 spot, with only 22 PAs: .409/.959. Again, that was only 22 PAs and 20 ABs. His 2014 splits are a bit more consistent across all spots.

Phillips had more than 50 PAs at 2, 3 (290), 4, and 5. His highest OBP and OPS was at the 5th spot. He went .361/.789. He also slugged .429 from there, also his highest at any spot.

In 2013, He hit at the 2, 3, and 4 holes. 109 PAs at 2 and 552 at 4. That’s a big difference in PAs, but he still out did himself in the 4 compared to the 2, but not by much; .305/.669 (2) and .312/.716 (4).

Then, in 2012, he totaled 124 PAs in 1st, 188 in 3rd, and 309 in 4th. He only hit in these three spots that year. In 4th, he slashed .344/.804 and in 1st, .254/.552. He did register a PA at 5th and 9th.

Last year for Dansby Swanson, he hit in spots 1, 2, 6, 7, 8, and 9. He logged 30 or more PAs at 7 and 8.

His splits here for OBP and OPS, while an extremely small sample, still say a little bit.

In the 7th spot he was .267/.517 (30 PAs) and in 8th, .380/.836 (101 PAs). For what it’s worth, at the 2 spot, he had 4 PAs. His slash there: .500/1.833.

The Conclusion

Take from it what you wish. To me, I think it stands to reason, that Dansby will be around a lot longer than Phillips will, and only cements the idea of having him in the number 2 slot in the lineup more than Phillips.

We all know that Phillips is a bridge to Ozzie Albies. If Dansby is going to be the number 2 hitter, then you might as well get him used to hitting there. A 1-5 of Ender Inciarte, Swanson, Freeman, Matt Kemp, and Nick Markakis with Phillips in 6th, only makes this lineup better.

I don’t see any reason to put Swanson at 6th and Phillips at 2nd, if you’re going to flip them at some point if Swanson produces. Consistency is a big part of being comfortable. Moving things after a routine and rhythm are established creates slumps.

Next: Pace of Play Won't Bring in New Fans

After all is said and done, and the roster is finalized, I see the lineup looking like so:

Inciarte, Swanson, Freeman, Kemp, Markakis, Phillips, Tyler Flowers, Adonis Garcia, and the pitcher.

Than again, I could be entirely wrong … And that’s been known to happen, on rare occasions.

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