Bill James Projection for Dan Uggla’s 2012

This is Bill James. We’re going to be examining Mr. James’ projections for most of the everyday Braves’ on the 2012 club. Today we’ll take a look at Dan Uggla. All projection data gathered from the fine folks at FanGraphs.

Bill James 2012 Dan Uggla Projection:

161 Games Played, 601 AB, 151 hits, 32 doubles, 1 triples, 33 HR, 95 runs, 92 RBI, 72 BB, 158 K, 2 SB, .278 AVG, .337/.473/.810

Now here’s an example of a projection where I am left feeling like Mr. James took last year’s production, added a few walks; and called it a day.

Even the most casual Braves fans know that it was the tale of two seasons for their biggest off-season acquisition last year. Uggla turned it on in the second half and finished with pretty respectable numbers. Last season’s doldrums led to a .311/.453/.764 slash line of production for Uggla. If he rebounds to the .473 slugging to this season, I think it’s too light of a rebound. If Uggla rebounds at all, it will be closer to his peak slugging seasons of .508 and .514, in my opinion.

While I think most fans would sign up for the .810 OPS figure that Bill James predicts for Uggla in 2012 right now, I think there’s more in store for you. I think Uggla has a few more dingers and doubles to pad the total and hits for more average in general. This makes for a big rebound season coming for Uggla in 2012.