Jon Lester to the Braves… Is it Possible?

This is one of those things that I just can’t believe I’m reporting to you right now.  But here it is:

Yep.  There it is.  I’m speechless.

Four days ago, Jeff Schafer put this together… and pretty much agreed with Ken Rosenthal:  yeah, he lives 35 miles away.  Yeah, it’s a due diligence thing.  Okay, nothing really to see here – move along.

Then this shows up.   I swear John Hart is trolling all of us this week.

Okay, let’s treat it seriously for a bit here.  For obviously Lester is at least going through the motions himself.

Why Would Jon Lester Sign With Atlanta?

Two sides to this:  the Braves side and Lester’s.  Let’s start with the latter.

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Lester is nearly 31 years old, a veteran of nine major league seasons.  He holds a lifetime ERA+ rating of 121, which approaches “ace level”, though excepting 2012-2013 (which weren’t horrible), he’s been there.  2014 was his best season yet, posting a 155 ERA with Boston and Oakland. This, oh by the way, despite beating anaplastic large cell lymphoma starting in 2006.

Until last season, Lester had been exclusively with the Red Sox.  He’s been an All-Star 3 times and finished 4th in the Cy Young voting twice (2010, 2014).  He has two World Series rings (Boston ’07, ’13) and has career earnings of $43.5 million.  He was born in Tacoma, WA, but lives near Atlanta in Sharpsburg, GA.  The Boston Globe has even accused him of having developed a southern accent (an egregious sin in New England).

But now is when his big payday is set to occur…. which normally would exclude Atlanta.

The only thing I can figure from his point of view is the following – and I do think we need to take this seriously, for Lester is seeing what’s going on and he’s going talk with the Braves with his eyes open:

• He’s been there, done that, got the rings, got the no-hitter.  He doesn’t “need” to win or prove himself… though I’m equally sure he’s still very much like to win.
• Family might be more important now than anything else.  I can definitely respect that.  The ability to drive home after a day at the office is a strong pull.
• To that end, Lester is married and he and Farrah have two children.  He met Farrah in South Carolina during his rehab stints after the cancer treatment.

Braves’ Viewpoint

From the Braves’ point of view, they are significantly hamstrung financially.  But there’s reasons to like Lester – a lot of reasons:

• He’s an Ace.  Yep.
• He’s performed very well in playoff situations.
• I poke fun at it (often), but the Braves do indeed value a veteran’s presence in the clubhouse.  We spent some time on these pages lamenting the lack thereof during last season – having lost Tim Hudson, Reed Johnson, and Brian McCann.  This can’t be overlooked.  Lester, with his credentials, would be a giant in Atlanta.
• If I start drooling at the thought of a rotation including Lester, Julio Teheran, Mike Minor, Alex Wood, and Shelby Miller, then please forgive me:  that would stand up against any five in all of baseball.

So How Could This Possibly Happen?

In short, it would take Jon Lester wanting to make it happen, but here’s mechanics that would be required:

• Right now:  Hart continues to clear the budget – sell Justin Upton, figure out how to move BJ, possibly Chris Johnson.  I talked about financial stuff this morning… I won’t re-do the math.
•  Lester has to give the Braves a break – especially during Year 1 of a deal… something like $12-15 million.  Low enough to allow Atlanta to get themselves back on their financial feet:  clearing the contracts just mentioned plus Dan Uggla from the books.  If the budget needed a ‘push’ for this year, Liberty Media would support that for this kind of situation.
•  From 2016 and beyond, Lester could then take something in the neighborhood of $18-22m annually for 5 more years.  That would actually be affordable, especially given the plethora of “kids” that would be on the roster.
•  Getting Lester also eliminates the need to go get another arm via trade.  Now the emphasis for trading Justin Upton, Evan Gattis, et al, would be bats – cheaper outfield bats in particular.  Youngsters, prospects… contact hitters… whatever.

So that’s a total of 6 years and around $114 million for the whole contract.  And it actually would be structured to allow Atlanta to continue rebuilding the farm, rebuilding the payroll, and maybe – perhaps – even finding an outfield for 2015.   Is it far-fetched?  I’d still say yes, for a lot of steps are required to make it happen.  But if Jon Lester wants it to happen, that would ramp things up in a hurry.

So do you believe???  How about after this:

Huh.