Braves to Meet With Jon Lester Today
By Fred Owens
Today’s the day the Braves meet with local free agent pitcher Jon Lester. Speculation about his willingness to take a hometown discount spread when news leaked that the meeting would take place. What can we expect from that meeting?
The meeting today isn’t exactly news, about now John Hart and his team are sitingt down with Lester and make their pitch – whatever that pitch is – then Lester will continue his magical mystery tour of teams to check on their plans and their checkbooks.
Both Jeff and Alan have written here about the possibility of signing the former Red Sox and A’s lefty. The only significant changes are that reliable estimates are out there and he has offers on the table. The decision to meet may well be an effort to pacify fans after the trade of Jason Heyward.
Yesterday MLB Trade Rumors published their free agent profile of Lester. Their profiles are detailed and the estimates included extremely accurate, the post is worthy of a close read. Their conclusion sets a bar higher than many expected but well within reason for the lefty.
"“. . .In the end, I do think Lester can top the marks set by Hamels and Greinke. Lester was the best performer among free agent pitchers in 2014, so I can’t completely rule out him getting a seventh year and/or passing Sabathia’s mark. However, his age and the lack of a consistently dominant track record has me pegging him for a six-year, $153MM contract."
With that in mind let’s look at the offers we know about.
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Red Sox
Adams Jones reports that the Red Sox made an initial offer of six year at between $110M and $120M in order to “save face.” He’s not sure whether the Red Sox actually expect him to take the offer or not.
"The interest (whether real or not) the Red Sox have in Jon Lester is confusing, to say the least."
"We know the Red Sox don’t like giving out long term contracts to players over the age of 30. They said as much last offseason, and their offer to Jon Lester in spring training of four years and $70 million — while unrealistic — did fall in line with their organizational philosophy. . .What’s changed in under a year’s time?"
He has a point. If the Red Sox had made that offer before the season Lester would surely have taken it. If that had happened the A’s trade would not have happened and the whole post season may have changed. Were the Red Sox planning that kind of thing when they low-balled Lester? They say no but now that he’s hit free agency, this offer appears knowing that he’s probably going to get bigger offers elsewhere.
Cubs
Lester flew from Boston yesterday to meet with the Cubs and according to ESPN’s Jesse Rogers, who he signs with largely depends on Lester’s short term goals.
"“. . .Lester can take a last stab or two (at winning) with Boston, where he’s beloved and probably comfortable, or he can go “home” to Atlanta and live in his mansion during the season. Or he can buy what the Cubs were selling him on Tuesday: something new, something on the upswing, something historic. And probably about $120 million to $130 million on top of it.“"
Cardinals?
No this isn’t a Cardinals type of contract. It’s too big and too long. But Bernie Miklasz over at the St Louis Post Dispatch reports that he thinks it might happen because “Mozeliak has been feisty over the last year or so.”
"Mozeliak has parted with precious, cost-controlled young pitching — Joe Kelly, Shelby Miller and prospect Tyrell Jenkins — in deals for short-term gains. This week’s trade for Atlanta outfielder Jason Heyward could qualify as a long-term gain if he has a great 2015 season, then signs with the Cardinals instead of opting for free agency. Mozeliak also surrendered an outfield prospect, James Ramsey, to acquire starting pitcher Justin Masterson last summer.It’s clear that Mo — known for his patience — is getting itchy. And he’s dialed up the aggressiveness."
It would be a really different approach for the Cardinals but times are changing and perhaps they are as well.
Braves
The idea that the Braves are players centers around the fact the Lester just bought a $3.4M home within spitting distance of the new ballpark in Cobb County. Rumors also point out that he might enjoy the National League better than the AL – all real baseball fans do – and that would make him lean towards the Braves. . .or Cubs. . .or Cardinals. . .or. . .
Any deal with Atlanta would have to be back loaded so the Bravos could stay within their stated payroll limits – somewhere close to last year’s $112M. That would mean an initial year below market value with the monies to be made up over the following five years. Lester (31 next year) would be 37 when and still earning big numbers. He’s been durable since beating cancer in 2006 and he’s a left hander, both of those things make his longevity more probable. Whether the Braves will make an offer at or near the $120M of Boston’s and guarantee him six years is the first question. The reported Red Sox, and speculated Cubs and Braves offers would not be enough when the bidding escalates – as it surely will if he doesn’t suddenly sign somewhere. That would almost certainly eliminate the Braves.
That’s A Wrap
It’s unlikely we’ll have any solid news quickly. Lester will continue to visit teams that ask him and will then take his time to make a decision. The Braves and Cubs offer similar opportunities; a serious challenge for the World Series in 2017. The Cubs offer the added historical incentive of being on the team that breaks the curse of the goat while the Braves can offer him half a season in his own bed without using airline miles.
Wining and dining a guy like Lester probably isn’t going to make him sign on the dotted line. It’s going to come down whether he wants to win quickly or can wait a couple of years. Boston may offer him that chance but the new Heyward-ified Cardinals who are on his list of teams to visit could say “just look at our track record and this team, we’re ready now too.” The Braves can offer home cooking and a promise. As Rogers said in his post, “It might simply come down to the better contract, as it usually does “99 percent” of the time, according to Epstein.” Whatever happens we’ll keep you informed here a the take.