B.J. Upton’s Short Leash

In today’s New York Post, writer Joel Sherman muses on several baseball topics, but he finishes with a mention of the Atlanta Braves and B.J. Upton.  It is eye-opening.

"…try as they might, the Braves could not get rid of his brother, B.J. Upton.Atlanta was willing to eat significant portions of the three years at $46.35 million left on the deal and/or take a bad contract back. But nothing worked, so the Braves are left to paint an optimistic view of the situation – notably that upbeat new hitting coach Kevin Seitzer could work some magic and that Upton is saying all the right stuff about the need for adjustments."

That’s the public statements.  Sherman goes on to then paint a picture of what to expect in the coming season:

"Privately, the Braves are saying they will not tolerate more of the same and keep feeding Upton consistent at-bats. In fact, Upton has fallen so far that Atlanta would consider a Plan B that is a platoon between Yankees castoff Zoilo Almonte and Todd Cunningham, whose eight major league at-bats came in 2013."

In 2014, many of us in these pages were complaining that Fredi Gonzalez continued to give AB’s to Upton despite his performance.  I personally expect that there are likely only two reasons that this was done last year:

• The size of his contract
• Dan Uggla

Uggla’s failures preceded those of Melvin Upton by a few months, so he was the first to be shown the door.  There seemed to be a countdown on the dollars remaining with Uggla’s deal leading to the day in which the Braves could/would finally be able to stomach paying a player not to play for them anymore.

In 2014, that figure was roughly $20 million.

The date that Upton’s contract gets to $20 million remaining is roughly August 21st, 2016.  Anybody here think that the Braves wait that long to release him if things don’t change?

While that was a big number for this franchise, the bigger number – $46.35 million – still remains.  At this time, we do not know what “significant portions” meant in John Hart‘s efforts to move B.J.  One-third?  One half?  More?  Those are unknowns.  We do know that there were no takers.

Rebooting B.J.

By now, if everyone quoted is to be believed, direct workouts between Kevin Seitzer and B.J. Upton are now underway.  That gives the pair 7 or 8 weeks to re-construct a swing that once produced a .300 batting average, a .380+ OBP, 24 home runs, and 4.5+ WAR.

We hear that B.J. knows what’s going on – that he’s “embarrassed” at his own performance.  I expect so.

There was a semblance of improvement in 2014:  batting average up 24 points (to .208), ISO power up 20% (to .125), strikeout rate down (from 34% to 29.7%), slugging up, OPS up (.557 to .620).  But clearly he still looked lost at the plate and quite simply could not hit any pitch that isn’t low-middle-in.

In fact, looking at this chart, there’s no pitcher that should ever throw him anything other than belt-high fastballs on the inside of the plate (.056 average).  Seitzer will have to get Upton to hit these pitches – if nothing else – just to give him a chance.

Upton has the athletic ability – heck, that’s probably been the only thing sustaining him, for that still got him a dozen homers to go with that .208 average.  Dan Uggla, for example, only hit two out in 2014 – both within an hour on that crazy day in Philadelphia.

Next: When Does the Braves' Future Arrive?

The ‘Plan B’ for 2015

Sherman’s words are ominous, but full of meaning.  If B.J. Upton cannot demonstrate improvement quickly in 2014, the Braves will install those who can… even if it’s a platoon of AAAA players in Zoilo Almonte and Todd Cunningham.

The switch-hitting Cunningham hit .287 for AAA Gwinnett in 2014 (8 homers, 19 steals, .754 OPS in 120 games), but just .229 in 18 games (70 AB) for Licey in the Dominican Winter League before coming back home.

Almonte, also a switch-hitter, has had a solid Winter playing for Aguilas.  In 35 games (135 AB), he’s at .338 with a pair of homers and a robust .870 OPS.  While that’s nice, I would not expect it to be sustainable, given his minor league career.

The pair are remarkably similar – down to their 6’0″/200-205 sizes.  Almonte has better power at the plate; Cunningham perhaps a bit more speed.  Either way, this isn’t exactly an encouraging fallback plan.

Which circles back to B.J. Upton.

If Seitzer can somehow get his head unscrewed, then perhaps he can get to… .240?  .250?  Is that enough?

If not, I gotta hope there’s a Plan C brewing somewhere.