How much of the 2015 Atlanta Braves Roster will get turned over in-season?
By Ryan Cothran
I wrote last week about the trades the Atlanta Braves have made thus far…
…and about the trades that will likely be made over the course of the next few seasons. No matter what smoke the front office is trying to blow up our hind parts, this team is likely not to compete, as built, in 2015. Fangraphs has our projected win total to be less than 80, and I can’t really argue with that projection. There is a small bit of hope that relies on Kevin Seitzer coming in and working his magic to help the hitters make good, hard, consistent contact. Yet even then, it likely makes the Braves a .500 ballclub, at best. No matter if the Braves win 50 or 100, my fandom will still be present and I look forward to rooting for all affiliates of the Braves in the 2015 season. Just a suggestion: this year might be the year where Braves fans everywhere break down and buy MILB.TV, merely for sanity’s sake.
With that being said, July is a long time away, but I think there’s a good chance that the Braves could turn over 40% of their 2015 25-man roster at the trade deadline, or before. That’s a whopping 10 players. Let’s look into this theory, shall we?
Projecting the Atlanta Braves 25-man roster: Pitching Staff
Starters: Julio Teheran, Alex Wood, Shelby Miller, Mike Minor, Wandy Rodriguez/Other Random Veteran SP
Relievers: Craig Kimbrel, Jason Grilli, Jim Johnson, James Russell, Luis Avilan, Josh Outman, David Hale
Ok, I know what some might be thinking? Do you really think Wandy Rodriguez gets the 5th starter job this year, or some other random veteran starter over the plethora of options the Braves have acquired this offseason?
Yes, I do. It’s hard to face the reality, but the Braves are likely not going to compete in 2015, and there’s really no point in giving any of the young guys the rotation spot to start the season. I think the roster constructed at the start of the 2015 season will be built as a showcase of veteran talent for the trade deadline. There are likely 7-8 pitchers listed above that could potentially be traded at the deadline, should they prove a worthy risk for other teams. Those are: Wandy Rodriguez, Mike Minor, Jason Grilli, Jim Johnson, James Russell, Luis Avilan, and Josh Outman. There are millions of millions of reasons for the Braves to trade Craig Kimbrel, but I don’t foresee it happening, therefore he doesn’t make my list. Sure, the Braves could come to the conclusion that a closer on a poor team is a luxury, not a necessity and flip him for a huge return at the deadline, or come to the opposite conclusion and keep him around to electrify the crowd in the 2017 season, the first in Suntrust Park. I think they’ll do the 2nd. I’d be fine with them doing either, but the not-so gung-ho fans would be up in arms should the Braves trade the best closer in baseball. Back to the lecture at hand…
Prediction: Up to 7 pitchers (likely 4 or 5) could be traded at or prior to the deadline, including 2 starters and 5 relievers.
Out of those 7, 5 are easy to understand: Wandy Rodriguez, Jason Grilli, Jim Johnson, James Russell, and Josh Outman are all under control for 2 years or less, have proven track records, and will likely not be with the Braves in a year or 2. Trading them when they would be at peak value is essentially the reason they’ll likely be on the roster. Minor and Avilan are different, as they are both homegrown, but likely fit into the category of excess. Both could bring back a decent package of prospects should they perform to their 2013 numbers.
Projecting the Atlanta Braves 25-man Roster- Position Players
Starters– Christian Bethancourt, Freddie Freeman, Alberto Callaspo, Andrelton Simmons, Chris Johnson, RH LF bat, B.J. Upton, Nick Markakis
Bench: A.J. Pierzynski, Jace Peterson, Phil Gosselin, Joey Terdoslavich, Zoilo Almonte
Out of the above group, there are 2 players in Alberto Callaspo and A.J. Pierzynski that are veterans and have been signed to 1-year contracts. I think the Braves will add another, whether it be via trade or free agency (top candidates, in my opinion are Jonny Gomes and Allen Craig). Those 3 will likely be traded at the deadline should they provide useful in the first months of the season. From there, the other 2 who’ll likely be gone should they rebound are quite obvious: CJ and BJ. While it will take a complete transformation for anyone to take a shot on B.J. Upton and his salary, 3b numbers across the MLB are down, and CJ could be a .700-.750 OPS player and be of big value on the trade market.
Prediction: Up to 5 position players (3 likely) could be traded at or prior to the deadline, including 2 starters and 1 bench player.
What could the return be for the Atlanta Braves?
Any of the above players that do not play above, or at least to their current standard, likely won’t bring back anything in return, therefore causing the Braves to keep or release them. In my opinion, here’s what each player could demand at the trade deadline should they play to their career stat-lines. I’ll start with players that have multiple years of control* (*years under control are factored from the trade deadline). Players in bold are players that I think the Braves will likely not trade, yet for the sake of the list, they’re on here:
1. Luis Avilan (3.5)- 1 B and 1 C-rated prospect
2. Mike Minor (2.5) – 1 A (or 2 B) and 2 C rated prospect
3. Jason Grilli (2.5)- 1 B and 2 C rated prospects
4. Josh Outman (1.5)- 1 B rated prospect
5. Wandy Rodriguez (0.5)- 1 B rated prospect
6. James Russell (0.5)- 1 C-rated prospect
7. Jim Johnson (0.5)- 1 B-rated prospect and 1 C-rated prospect
8. A.J. Pierzynski (0.5)- 1 C-rated prospect
9. Alberto Callaspo (0.5)- 1 C-rated prospect
10. Chris Johnson (3.5)- 2 B-rated prospects
11. B.J. Upton (2.5)- Even with a rebound, asking the acquiring team to do more than pay his salary would be foolish, so just for listing’s sake: a PTBNL
12. Craig Kimbrel (3.5)- 1 A, 2 B-rated prospects.
There you have it! There are 12 players, in my opinion, that could be traded at the deadline that are likely to break camp on the 25-man roster (unless they’re traded before then), 8 of which are likely to be traded, 2 of which would take a huge statistical rebound, and 2 of which the Braves would have to be blown away by the return. Not on this list is what I think will be a veteran RH LF, so that would make 13. 40% of the roster would be 10 players to be traded, and it’s not out of the realm of possibilities for that to happen. In all likelihood, the number will be 4-6 players being dealt at the deadline as the chance of all rebounding to career norms are low. We can still dream, right?
What are your thoughts on the matter? Let’s hear from the peanut gallery…I mean, fans! I kid, I kid..