Can the Atlanta Braves 2015 Offense be…Average?
By Ryan Cothran
No, I’m not an Atlanta Braves’ beat-writer trying to blow smoke up your rear.
Nor am I the extreme optimist that thinks the Braves can win 90+ games every year and win the World Series. However, now that the last pieces of the puzzle has likely landed in the forms of Kelly Johnson and Jonny Gomes, I’d like to take a look at what it would take for the Braves offense to be merely average. In this exercise, I’m going to assume a few things and those assumptions could be dead wrong, or spot on. Only time will tell. Here goes my first assumption:
Atlanta Braves will incorporate 3-5 platoons around the Diamond
In all likelihood, both B.J. Upton and Chris Johnson will be given the first few months of the year to try and rebound some of their lost value so the Braves can try to rid themselves of their contracts as quick as possible. Beginning the season, BJ and CJ will get mucho playing time, but when/if they falter, things might get very…platoon-y. By May, I think there’s a fairly large chance that we could be seeing the following platoons:
Catcher: Christian Bethancourt and A.J. Pierzynski
2nd base: Alberto Callaspo and Phil Gosselin
3rd base: Chris Johnson and Jace Peterson
LF: Jonny Gomes and Kelly Johnson
CF: B.J. Upton and Zoilo Almonte
A.J. and Bethancourt will likely be sharing duties out of the gate, as well as Jonny Gomes/Zoilo Almonte, and to a lesser extent Jace Peterson/Alberto Callaspo, but I think things get really interesting when the Braves go to strict platoons at the aforementioned 5 positions. 2015 could be the year in which the platoon theory really gets tested and the Braves could be the team to do it. Even in strict platoons, the Braves offense will not be good and will have to exceed in almost every role just to pass as average. However, at average, the Braves, with a well above-average pitching staff, could actually compete. I’m not suggesting that this team could be average offensively, however I’m going to provide you with some 2014 numbers and you make the judgment.
2014 National League OPS by Position
2014 was a putrid year for offense, and the Braves led the stenchfest in notorious fashion. In the “Nowhere to go but up” mentality, one would think that the offensive numbers for 2015 can’t get worse than 2014. One would think so. One would hope so. Nonetheless, here are the National League’s Average OPS by position:
Catcher-.701 OPS
1B- .760 OPS
2b- .662 OPS
SS- .675 OPS
3b- .717 OPS
LF- .716 OPS
CF- .721 OPS
RF- .716 OPS
Average the entire lot together, and one gets a .709 OPS.
2015 Atlanta Braves Steamer projections
Catchers: Bethancourt- .612 Pierzynaki- .641
1B: Freeman- .855
2B: Callaspo- .674 Gosselin- .621
SS: Simmons- .675
3b: CJ- .694 Jace Peterson- .614
LF: Gomes- .698 KJ- .706
CF: Almonte- .675 BJ- .652
RF: Markakis- .728
Average the entire lot together, and one gets a .694 OPS.
Shedding light on the Atlanta Braves Platoon Situation
If the Braves can stick to the platoons above, there could be some added magic in the numbers, enough to make up the .015 point difference in OPS, and maybe more. Below I’ll list some career Major League numbers from the platoon, then deal with the Minor League numbers of players that do not have established track records. Using career splits is flawed, but this is a bit of a flawed study that relies on the players, age be damned, to rebound in a part-time role to numbers similar to their career average. Deal with it!
Major Leaguers: LHH vs. RHP
A.J. Pierzynski: .768 OPS
Kelly Johnson: .751 OPS (has a career reverse platoon split)
Alberto Callaspo: .687 OPS (has a career reverse platoon split)
Minor Leaguers: LHH vs RHP (averaged over 3 years)
Zoilo Almonte- .821 OPS
J. Peterson- .822 OPS (also has a career reverse platoon split)
Major Leaguers: RHH vs. LHP
Chris Johnson- .792 OPS
B.J. Upton- .747 OPS
Jonny Gomes- .861 OPS
Minor Leaguers: RHH vs. LHP (averaged over 3 years)
Christian Bethancourt- .739 OPS
Phil Gosselin- .842 OPS
Conclusion: Is it possible the Atlanta Braves offense could be average?
Anything’s possible, I guess. Heck fire, Chipper Jones could feel sorry for us Braves fans, come out of retirement, play CF, hit 50 HR, and go on to win every MVP the MLB offers…Chipper? It would take a whole lot of improvement from a group of aging players (that doesn’t happen often), and it would take some younger guys transitioning their offensive game to the Major Leagues. Lastly, it would take both Chris Johnson and B.J. Upton to not suck, at least while facing LHH. If all of the numbers listed above came to fruition, the Braves would be a top-10 offense, and that’s very unlikely to happen. However, if a few of the platoon scenarios offer an above league average OPS, it could happen that the Braves could be average. Oh, the days of being above average…sigh.
Squint hard, Braves’ fans! The offense could be average. Now the defense…uh oh. Squint harder.
One more thing… with the signing of both Jonny Gomes and Kelly Johnson, the Braves likely have added 2 more pieces that will likely get flipped at the deadline.