Can the Atlanta Braves Afford to Wait Until 2017?

Sep 1, 2015; Atlanta, GA, USA; General view of Turner Field during a game between the Atlanta Braves and Miami Marlins in the third inning at Turner Field. Mandatory Credit: Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

The 2015 Atlanta Braves season is now officially a disaster. Early on, John Hart promised a ‘competitive’ club (even continuing to do so while in the same breath seeming to back away from those remarks), but since July 7th and that 42-42 mark, the downward trajectory has accelerated. The Braves are clearly not competitive at this time.

The promise further declared that 2017 would be the first year in which the Braves would begin contending for titles… and year after year beyond that.

Here’s the trouble: I don’t think this club can afford to wait that long.

Follow the Money

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The chief problem here is about club revenues. Now clearly, that’s what SunTrust Park’s construction is all about: a means of building new sources of consistent revenue so the the Braves can afford to pay these ever-increasing salaries to their players, acquire new talents, etc. But we aren’t there yet.

Over just the first half of 2015, the team reported revenues were down by $14 million over 2014. It should also be noted that 2014 wasn’t exactly a banner year, either. In fact, here’s six years of attendance data:

2010: 30,989 average per home date (rank: 13)
2011: 30,039 (15)
2012: 29,878 (15)
2013: 31,465 (13)
2014: 29,065 (18)
2015: 25,530 (24)

The Braves are just 700-ish ahead of Philadelphia with 16 home dates remaining on the schedule, and could easily ‘pass’ them for 25th place overall. Given the disastrous stretch in progress (9 losses in a row and 16 of 17), there is a strong likelihood that gates like the Marlins series just concluded (allegedly numbering 12,916 / 16,386 / 17,949 ) will be the new normal through the end of the season.

That $14 million of lost revenue will continue to multiply in terms of ticket sales, concessions, parking, merchandising (MLB products are a shared revenue source, but that doesn’t cover everything). The sad tally could thus exceed $30 million below 2014 income levels by year’s end.

Mixed Blessings

As we’ve chronicled on this site, ineptitude on the field provides some nice benefits later (i.e., high draft picks), but with those blessings will come increased pressure on the team’s budget. To wit…

2015’s #14 draft pick – pool value was $2,842,400.
2015’s #1 draft pick – pool value was $8,616,900… a number that will increase for 2016.
Atlanta’s total draft pool for 2015 was close to $10.7 million. Houston’s was over $17 million, though they did have an extra top 5 pick.

Regardless of how you slice it, the Braves will have the opportunity – and practically the obligation – to spend quite a bit more in the draft next June, since they appear destined for the #1 or 2 overall pick. That, of course, requires more cash.

But wait, there’s more: there’s the International market next July. We have also been noting rumors that Atlanta was intending to break the bank – blowing through the cap and getting well into the penalty area here to active acquire multiple top talents. Now their overall spending pool will be higher, which will help with the penalties somewhat, but one has to wonder if perhaps some of those ambitions might have to be scaled back a bit if the revenue isn’t there to spend.

Hey, this isn’t the Federal Government here: if there’s less money available, there’s actually less to spend.

The good news? The stadium is running under budget right now, so that takes a bit of pressure off, as the Braves are responsible for any/all cost overruns incurred.

So Here’s the Rub

Braves fans are already showing that they simply don’t want to buy tickets to see a loser.

Current attendance is down 20% from that 2013 peak, and trending much lower as many have opted to change their channels to the imminently-upon-us football season. Some fans – perhaps those living in the southern Atlanta metro area – may opt to check-out early since the team is moving north in 2017. Still others further north – awaiting the new stadium – might now choose to delay jumping on board.

Regardless of who or how: the numbers are clear, and the solution is equally clear.

The promise of remaining ‘competitive’ during this rebuild has been broken. Thus John Hart and John Coppolella need to accelerate the clock for 2016.

However it is accomplished, the team needs to actually spend some cash this Fall/Winter to bring in …. somebody … to bolster the offense sufficiently to win some games. This just can’t wait.

Sense of Urgency

The team is currently 54-80. Heck, they still have to win nine more times to avoid the dreaded triple-digit losses. Yet this isn’t about 2015 any longer. They have to ride (or drag) the horse the brought ’em to this point through October. But it’s the off-season that concerns me now.

The answer isn’t entirely clear at this time: clearly, both offense and pitching need help. The pitching should be better on its own in 2016, but the offense needs some power… from somewhere. Freddie Freeman and Hector Olivera represent 2 bats. It’s hard to know now who else would still be here by next Spring, but those two need more than just a supporting cast of singles hitters.

Whatever the answer, fans would embrace a bold move. They have been supportive of the rebuild to a point, but that support is now stopping short of the turnstiles – which will hurt the team. If the goal is to build momentum toward SunTrust Park, then the Braves cannot afford to wait, as the status quo is unsustainable. Frankly, it’s money spent that could easily pay for itself via restored revenue.

Sometimes you gotta spend money to make money.

Next: The End is Near

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