Tomahawk Take Top Atlanta Braves Prospect List: A Primer on Scouting Grades
TT’s Top 20 Atlanta Braves prospects: Explaining the scouting grades
This afternoon, we will start releasing the top 20 prospects from our Tomahawk Take writers. This was done by having each of the writers send a top 30 prospect list of Atlanta Braves prospects, and then using my masterful Excel skills, I weighted each ranking and tallied the totals. The schedule will be as follows (and will be updated with links as each list is published):
Monday, February 22nd: Prospects 20-16
Tuesday, February 23rd: Prospects 15-11
Wednesday, February 24th: Prospects 10-6
Thursday, February 25th: Prospects 5-1
Friday, February 26th: “Just Missed” Prospects, and guys to keep your eyes on this year in the minor leagues
Each of these will drop at 3pm EST, and a host of writers from Tomahawk Take will be contributing write-ups. However, that’s not our focus in this particular piece…
What Are All These Numbers?
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Throughout the posts you’ll see this week, you’ll very possibly see mention of a grade of a certain aspect of a player being referred to with a number attached to it in this sort of way: “Player X has a 60-grade arm” So what exactly does that mean?
In baseball scouting, scouts utilize a grade from 20 to 80 to rate a player. Why 20 to 80 and not 1 to 10 or something similar? Well, that’s anyone’s guess. There’s some various theories on the background of that, and if you’re interested in more in-depth reasoning behind some of the background of scouting, one of the books I’d suggest is Dollar Sign on the Muscle by Kevin Kerrane, originally published over 30 years ago, but updated very well by Baseball Prospectus over the years. The 20 to 80 system has grown more in the last decade as the previous 2 to 8 system was found to need a number of qualifiers between numbers, so rather than say a guy had a 5.5 hit tool, scouts say he has a 55 hit tool.
What “Tools” Are They Looking For?
With pitching, it’s pretty basic – the pitches are graded based on their velocity and movement. With a fastball, your example of a true 80-grade would be someone like Aroldis Chapman who has not only velocity, but also some impressive movement on his pitch as well. A guy with a curve ball that has incredible break that completely buckles the knees of the hitter could have an 80-grade curve ball. Touki Toussaint‘s crazy curveball has been given a grade of 60-65, to give you an idea of how good an 80-grade curve ball would have to be. Most pitchers throw 4 pitches, so you have a grade on each of their four pitches and then a fifth grade on command of all pitches. There is some growing movement to incorporate the command portion into the pitch grades and then use that fifth grade on mechanics as this is becoming more and more a thing that determines the forward motion of a pitching prospect.
Hitters have five basic tools that scouts look at. The first is the hit tool – the ability to make contact at a consistent rate. The second is power – which isn’t just over-the-fence power, but can also refer to the ability to drive the ball deep consistently. The third is running, or speed, and usually that’s just straight line speed in a 60-yard sprint or in home to first base time. The fourth is fielding, and the fifth is generally called “arm”, but it can refer to both arm strength and accuracy. You’ll sometimes hear of a guy who’s a five-tool prospect, which means that he has exceptional ability in all five tools, but this is very rare in actuality. Andrelton Simmons is a rare example of a guy who had near-80 grade fielding and arm rankings, but having either is extremely rare.
So What Is “Good”?
So, we know the range is 20-80, so what do the various grades “look” like. The Braves’ own Kiley McDaniel, when he was still writing for Fangraphs put together a good chart in his explanation of the grading system. Here are the basics: an 80 grade tool is the absolute elite, once-in-a-lifetime sort of skill. We’re talking about the sort of defense Andrelton plays or the sort of power Bryce Harper has or the fastball Aroldis Chapman has. Those are true 80-grade guys. An “average” tool is typically scored at a 50, and you’ll see a lot of play right around 50 in tool grades. Most guys sit from 40-60 in their grades, especially as prospects. A “plus” tool is one that’s graded at that 60 level, and a “plus plus” tool is one considered a 70 or better. For an idea on this, we’ll use home runs. An 80 guy is a guy who has the power to consistently hit 40+ home runs, year-in and year-out. A plus plus guy is a guy who would be able to hit 30-40 home runs on a consistent basis. A plus guy would be a guy who could hit in the range of 25-30 (Kiley states 23-30 in his post, I’ve heard 25 more frequently) on a consistent basis. An average guy in power would hit around 15 home runs.
Scouts also utilize overall grades on a prospect in a similar way. A hitter projected as an overall 50 is being projected as an average regular in the future. A starting pitcher projected as a 50 is projected as a #4 level starter. A reliever projected as a 50 grade is projected to be a high-end setup guy or low-end closer type as a reliever. With hitters, you start to see the upper-end guys when you see a 65 projected overall grade, which is a projected consistent All-Star player. With pitchers, your true “ace” type pitchers usually have a future projection of an overall 65-70 grade. A reliever projected to be an elite closer is typically graded a 60.
Hopefully this gives you a bit of an idea of what is being discussed as you read the upcoming top 20. I’ve certainly not covered everything in here, so if you want more information, certainly click on Kiley’s link or feel free to do some further research, but this should give you a good basic idea of what we’re discussing. Enjoy!!