Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: where do they go from here?

There seems to have been more team-building activities here in April than during the entire off-season. I would not expect this trend to wane for a while.

We are approaching the end of April and the Atlanta Braves (14-10) are now guaranteed to finish the month with a winning record. In terms of the division, they will also be no worse off than a tie for 3rd place, and could actually take over the lead in front of the New York Mets (15-8) before the calendar page turns.

We knew Ronald Acuña Jr. would be arriving at some point – and while that took a bit longer than anticipated, Preston Tucker kept left field well-occupied in a manner that – on occasion – provided some clutch pop.

So as we see at least 5-6 spots in the order now hitting the ball very well at this time on a given night, and Alex Anthopoulos apparently believes that the lineup will be improved by bringing in José Bautista. While I have personal doubts about that (and would love to be proven wrong), where do the Braves go from this point?

Some thoughts:

Bautista is a ‘flier’ – an option with little risk. Yet even that million dollars would not be worth spending on a coin flip opportunity (technicality: it hasn’t been guaranteed yet, but all signs success it will be in the next few days). I’ve got to believe that Anthopoulos believes that Bautista can work out – at the plate and at 3rd base. If so… then suddenly this lineup actually would look formidable.
The over-crowded rotation. Something will have to give here. Sure: Matt Wisler is one of those that will have to give, but what of Anibal Sanchez? If nothing else, he’s been said to be giving useful advice to multiple members of the rotation… and he’s pitching well again. You would think that keeping him in the bullpen would be helpful – especially if someone gets hurt. Solid depth options are always helpful.
The schedule. This is the big deal. For roughly the next month, it’s still manageable:
- at Phillies
- at Mets
- Giants
- at Rays
- at Cubs (double header makeup), then home with Cubs
- Marlins
- At Phillies

After that stretch, the ‘gauntlet’ begins: the Red Sox, Mets, Washington, San Diego, the Dodgers, and Mets again. This stretch runs from May 25-June 13.

If the Braves can get through that and still be above .500, then there’s reason to believe that the team will have cause to invest in some additional help (think “bullpen”) for the rest of the year.

Now that said, Anthopoulos could certainly choose to wait (and traditionally, teams don’t do a lot of trading in June) until they get through next tough stretch of games: Cardinals, Yankees, Brewers, Toronto, Diamondbacks, Washington.

That finishes up on July 22nd. We’ll certainly know a lot more about this team by then.

What Moves Could Be Done?

In other words: who has bullpen arms to spare? It’s truly hard to imagine that the Braves would go after a rental player of any kind this Summer… even a successful 2018 represents their window just starting to open up.

Nonetheless, here are some teams that should be worth targeting for bullpen deals, should they continue to flounder:

Baltimore… but not Zach Britton: even if fully healthy, he would be a rental. LHP Richard Bleier has been pitching out of his mind, though has the track record.
Minnesota. Should be playing better, but aren’t. Ryan Pressly would be a fit.
San Francisco. At 11-13, they are hardly out of it, though Arizona is trying to lap the field. They have a couple of relievers with sub-1.00 ERAs, including (another lefty) Tony Watson.
Brewers. Okay yes… they aren’t floundering at all. But they need a starting pitcher in the worst way while holding a surplus of talented relief pitchers… 5 with ERAs under 1.50 and more than 10 innings. That doesn’t even count Corey Knebel, who’s out with a hammy strain.

Let me go a little further there. With respect to my friend whose heart was in the right place, Atlanta is going to need a right fielder by 2019… preferably one that can thump the ball and not embarrass anyone in the field. Milwaukee has two positions in surplus: outfielders and relievers. Atlanta could use both.

Christian Yelich, Ryan Braun, and Lorenzo Cain aren’t going anywhere, and I don’t really know whether Domingo Santana is a good fit under that criteria. Hernán Pérez is certainly not, so that pretty much leaves Santana, if the Braves want to go there. If nothing else, he’s controllable through the 2021 season.

Where is this Heading?

We are 24 games into the season – almost 15% of the schedule – and I’m struggling to stay objective given the high level at which this offense has been operating. Yet I look at the fangraphs numbers and I see the following:

Hitting and defense: 5.3 team fWAR (3rd in MLB)
Pitching: 1.8 fWAR (17th)

That adds to 7.1. If you pro-rate that over the full season, this number becomes 47.9.

More from Tomahawk Take

What’s the significance of this figure? As I’ve been tracking the numbers over the past few years, the over/under value for playoff teams is roughly 40 fWAR. In other words, teams cranking 40+ fWAR make the playoffs a lot more often than not.

There are limited exceptions, though these typically run in the 38-43 range… but certainly not upwards of 48.

So here is a Braves’ club that has just added more offense in left field and presumably will try to do the same for third base. Even if starting pitching has an issue or two (or there’s a decision to make a deal), there are multiple ways that can be dealt with. It that fWAR rate going down any time soon?

In short, it’s truly looking like something that can be competitive… sooner than later.

Next: May I have the next envelope, please?

So can Atlanta get through that schedule between mid-May and the end of July? If so, then maybe we can start actually getting a little excited. In the meantime, enjoy the ride.

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