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Atlanta Braves are finally getting some love from Fangraphs

By Alan Carpenter

CHICAGO, IL - MAY 14: Jose Bautista (L) of the Atlanta Braves is greeted by Tyler Flowers (C) and Nick Markakis (R) of the Atlanta Braves after hitting a three-run homer against the Chicago Cubs during the fifth inning while wearing the #42 to commemorate Jackie Robinson Day on May 14, 2018 at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images)
CHICAGO, IL - MAY 14: Jose Bautista (L) of the Atlanta Braves is greeted by Tyler Flowers (C) and Nick Markakis (R) of the Atlanta Braves after hitting a three-run homer against the Chicago Cubs during the fifth inning while wearing the #42 to commemorate Jackie Robinson Day on May 14, 2018 at Wrigley Field in Chicago, Illinois. (Photo by David Banks/Getty Images) /
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Sure, we can understand the hesitation:  the Braves are making a splash that is surprising many so far.  But it’s been a slow progression to even get the unemotional analytical people on board.

This is not a drill:  the Atlanta Braves are 25-15 here on May 15th and have the best record in the National League.  That’s shocking news to the baseball world, and even so, those whose jobs include predictions and projections are finding it difficult to come around to this team’s successes as well.

At a .625 win percentage, the pace that Atlanta is now on reaches 101 wins.  If that slips to .600 for the rest of the season, then it’s still 98 wins.  Here’s some other splits involving the remaining 122 games:

  • .575 – 95 wins
  • .550 – 92 wins
  • .525 – 89 wins
  • .500 – 86 wins

Fangraphs is coming around, too.  They have a nice projection tool that shows every team, every playoff odd, strength of schedule, etc.

It was a week ago – May 8th – when that model finally guessed the Braves might hit 90 wins.  This was when the team had a 20-14 record after having just received a wake-up call from the Giants.

Today, however, this model finally has Atlanta shaking free of the Nationals and the Phillies while being projected for a robust 94.6 wins.

Here’s some other nuggets to glean from this chart:

  • Projected strength of remaining schedule.  Oddly, this went down this week (from .504 to .499) … after facing the Rays and Marlins!
  • The only National League club ranked for higher seasonal wins is the Cubs (95.5).
    • Their strength of schedule rating from here is .494 – one of the lowest outside of AL Central teams.
    • The Braves are now 2-1 in head-to-head meetings; should have been 3-0, except for that bizarre day at Wrigley.
    • This week’s series might change that outlook.
  • Wild Card chances:  25.4%
  • Winning division chances:  41.5%
  • Thus:  making the playoffs?  66.9%
  • I’ll go ahead and note that a World Series victory is rated at 5.7% – sixth highest.

Competition

Those playoff odds are a bit remarkable given that both the Phillies and Nationals are still lurking close by.

In fact, while the Braves do indeed have the NL’s best record, Philadelphia is now second overall by percentage points over the reeling Diamondbacks.

Arizona – already on a 6-game skid – may have lost CF A.J. Pollock for some time last night with a thumb injury after a failed dive attempt.  He was carrying their offense.

The D-Backs had been sailing along for quite a while, but their lack of hitting has recently been catching up to them, and the loss of Pollock could seriously hurt for a while.

More from Tomahawk Take

But back to the Braves… the fangraphs model guesses a .570 win percentage for the rest of the year, which doesn’t seem unreasonable.  As it is, the Braves have been playing out of their minds on the road (17-8), which isn’t normally supposed to happen.

The NL team closest to matching that kind of road warrior success is Milwaukee at 15-8.  Like the Braves, they are just 1 game over .500 at home, but Atlanta now has the fewest home games played in baseball (tied with the Twins) at just 15.

In the AL, Boston also has a 17-8 road record, with the Angels 1 better at 14-4.

Just 11 teams have losing home records and nearly all of them are at the bottom of their league standings (exception: the Rockies.  23-19 overall; 7-11 at home).

So in theory, the Braves – with more home games left than almost anyone – should be able to improve their standing once they finally get some consistent home cooking.

Next: The 2018 Draft is wide open

But it is nice to see the statisticians coming on board to provide some validation for what we’re seeing on the field.  Nothing is a guarantee – nor a substitute for solid play – but this hot start has the Braves poised for better things this Summer.

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