Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: foot on the neck of the division

Folks have been pointing to the last 10 games of the year – 7 of them against the Phillies. But will that matter?

Beginning yesterday around lunchtime, the Atlanta Braves‘ magic number stood at 15. In just a few hours, though, that dropped to just 12.

Correspondingly, the Braves’ lead has ballooned to a season-high 6-1/2 games. If the Phillies were reeling before, they are now looking around behind them for the insertion of a fork to see if they are ‘done’.

This was both the best possible outcome for Atlanta and the worst for the Phillies. The Philadelphia bullpen failed again and the Atlanta bullpen wasn’t even sent into battle on Tuesday night.

Mike Foltynewicz was allowed to finish what he started – giving up just a single meaningless (and late) run on 6 hits, striking out 7 in the process. For those counting, 108 pitches were thrown, but that’s well within his usual workload, and the first time over 100 in 3 starts.

Meanwhile he got enough offensive support and with 4 wins in a row (and 5 of 6 since the Red Sox series), the Braves are looking a lot closer to getting back on track,

Such is the landscape for the last 3 weeks of this regular season, an equation that seems to add up to just one thing: the playoffs.

In fact, given the way things are going, those Philadelphia games could be nearly meaningless. Except for…

1st Cautious Looks Ahead

James took a quick look at potential early playoff opponents yesterday. If things ended today, the Braves would host the Rockies. However, that outcome is not just tenuous at best, but could be turned on its ear.

The Braves may have the NL East nearly in their pocket, but if there’s one thing that would absolutely prefer to avoid, it’s playing the Rockies in Denver.

Right now, the Central Division is looking like the one that will capture home field advantage for the duration, though Atlanta is currently next in that pecking order… but not by much.

So even as Philadelphia is fading from sight, the Braves cannot afford to simply coast in to October play: their opportunity to extend this extraordinary season could be tied to the host venue.

While last night’s ‘best possible outcome’ materialized, there is another that we will need to wait on: whether the Braves can muster enough margin to rest and set up their rotation for a first-round opponent. That could go a long way to determining this team’s fate in October.

Oh, and if you get the impression that I think this playoff thing is ‘real’? Yeah – barring an epic turnaround from two teams simultaneously, our Atlanta Braves are playoff bound. Book it.

The Extraordinary Acuna

Going into Wednesday night’s play, the Braves’ 20-year-old phenom had posted a .290 avg, .365 OBP, and a .575% slugging rate with 25 homers.

More from Tomahawk Take

There’s a 148 weighted-runs-created (rWC+) and OPS of .940 with fWAR of 3.7. For a projected season, that’s 6.4.

Right now there are just 7 (seven) players who project to meet (Manny Machado) or exceed that 6.4 WAR level… that’s 7 in all of major league baseball.

And he hasn’t remotely peaked as a hitter yet.

That’s it – nothing particularly witty or profound about Acuna… just that the Small Sample Sizes with regard to Acuna’s MLB stats is evaporating rapidly… and yet he should be seeing special treatment from pitchers (he is) and so far, it’s been hard to find a situation in which he’s over-matched at the plate. If there’s a “book” on the Braves’ left-fielder, it’s one that most pitchers can’t seem to read… or perhaps Acuna himself continues to make his own edits.

This team is getting its act together – the bullpen is getting rest via careful mapping of their appearances and from better starting pitching. Those starters are also getting better.

dark. Next. The race for some additional hardware

While I still have some concerns about the Rockies, nobody is going to want to play the Braves if this continues. We’ll start that this afternoon with a getaway day afternoon special.

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