Atlanta Braves Morning Chop: about the reported Craig Kimbrel price drop

Reports characterize Craig Kimbrel’s contract needs as a ‘price reduction’, but it appears that he’s still nowhere close to getting back onto a mound any time soon.

The Atlanta Braves just put one of their more important relief pitchers on the Injured List even as performance from the healthy bullpen members has been a bit… sketchy at times.

So naturally you’d figure that the Braves Front Office would be all over this report that All-Star and former native son closer Craig Kimbrel just got a bit cheaper.

Don’t hold your breath waiting.

Well… it’s not $16-18 million per year and it’s not 4-to-6 years that we’re talking about now, so yes:  that constitutes a lower price.  But it’s still a price point that likely raises some problems – for the Braves and for other clubs.

Here’s the rub… and it comes from multiple angles:

• From the Braves perspective first…
  • Earlier reports suggested that Atlanta would consider a 2 year contract, but nothing longer.
  • It appears that this mortal fear of avoiding ‘dead money’ is real.  While offers have been made for 30+ free agents, nothing we’ve heard has been for a long term… which appears to be ‘anything over 2 years’.
  • If reports are accurate about an offer having been made to Dallas Keuchel at some point and to Michael Brantley, then money is not the issue… it has to be the contract term.
• From other teams’ perspectives…
  • Nationals.  Steadfastly are avoiding any other high-dollar spending.  Luxury tax issues are at the heart of this.
  • Cubs.  Same thing.
  • Red Sox.  Same thing.
  • Brewers.  Probably need Keuchel worse, but cost of acquisition is a bigger deal for them.
  • Phillies.  You’d have to think this is something they’d want to get done.  But people have been trying to link them to Kimbrel – and Keuchel – for months now.
  • Padres.  Still gotta be considered as a sleeper here.
  • In general, most teams have spent the large-dollar funds that they were willing to commit for 2019.  Kimbrel’s dollars are probably still just too high to consider for many (more on that in a minute).
• From the calendar perspective…
  • We’re now 7 weeks from the MLB Draft.  At this point, even if there is a team desperately intent on getting Kimbrel (and that seem unlikely), even they would probably wait on trying to sign him until June 7 or 8.  That saves them a draft pick.
  • The Braves’ have played 15 games (roughly 10% of the season).  Their 64th scheduled game happens on June 7th (ignoring the blizzard-out).  That’s about 40% of the season.  Yes, that’s a 50 game difference, but it’s also millions of dollars on a pro-rated deal… for anybody.

The Ugly Math

So Craig Kimbrel probably had to drop his price… but that should have happened by early March… not mid-April.  Had he done so then, he’d at least have earned a full season of dollars.

Let’s compare:  suppose he eventually agrees on a 3 year, $48 million term… which still might be construed as ‘optimistic’.

Doing this in March would have gotten him a full $16 million this season.  If he signs on June 7th, his 2019 paycheck would be based on about 60% of that… $9.6 million.

In other words… that’s a $6.4 million hit (before taxes… a subject I’m keenly aware of today :/ ).

So all that to say this:  the price may have dropped, but the teams are still window-shopping… and probably will be until after the 1st week of June.